SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
SC Freiburg
10th · 16 pts · 13 played
DWLWL
1–1Full time
Borussia Dortmund
3rd · 28 pts · 13 played
WDDWW
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 59). Absences weigh more on Borussia Dortmund. SC Freiburg had 2.8 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 6.9 and had to travel 392 km.
Away travel392 kmRest days2.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 1
SC Freiburg29%
Draw25%
Borussia Dortmund47%
SC Freiburg27%
Draw26%
Borussia Dortmund46%
SC Freiburg27%
Draw25%
Borussia Dortmund48%
SC Freiburg22%
Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund55%
SC Freiburg29%
Draw26%
Borussia Dortmund45%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 114
Team strength
SC FreiburgBorussia Dortmund
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
63
AttackIn forecast
69
73
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgBorussia Dortmund
1.54
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.77
1.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.85
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
77%
Scored inContext
100%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
54%
12.08
ShotsContext
12.15
3.85
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.38
32%
On target shareContext
36%
8.42
Shots in the boxContext
8.31
66%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.45
OffsidesContext
1.89
11.62
Shots allowedContext
9.85
3.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.25
3.83
BlocksContext
2.50
2.15
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.64
57%
Save rateContext
76%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
427
PassesContext
493
353
Accurate passesContext
419
83%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.98
9.00
FoulsContext
10.85
12.54
Fouls sufferedContext
10.38
1.46
Yellow cardsContext
1.69
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.69
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
70%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.40
ShotsContext
13.30
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
35%
On target shareContext
38%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
64%
Box shareContext
71%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
1.88
OffsidesContext
—
12.10
Shots allowedContext
10.20
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
4.38
BlocksContext
2.89
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
69%
Save rateContext
77%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
438
PassesContext
492
367
Accurate passesContext
419
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.96
9.90
FoulsContext
10.30
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km372 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Borussia Dortmund
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel392 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 392 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 372 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
5A. Jung
28M. Ginter
17L. Kübler
6P. Osterhage
8M. Eggestein
44J. Manzambi
14Y. Suzuki
29P. Treu
9L. Höler
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
5A. Bensebaini
4N. Schlotterbeck
23E. Can
26J. Ryerson
7J. Bellingham
8F. Nmecha
2Yan Couto
17C. Chukwuemeka
21Fábio Silva
9S. Guirassy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Borussia Dortmund-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
1.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-1
- Scored
- 2.17
- Conceded
- 1.33
Borussia Dortmund · Away
2.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-1
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | SC Freiburg | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–6 A | L 1–2 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 H | D 3–3 A |
| Union Berlin | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 3–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| 1.FC Köln | L 1–4 A | W 1–0 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–3 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 11 of 30 · 1.10 per game | 23 of 30 · 2.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 SC Freiburg wins0 draws7 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.63
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 5 Apr 2025SC Freiburg1–4Borussia Dortmund
- 23 Nov 2024Borussia Dortmund4–0SC Freiburg
- 9 Feb 2024Borussia Dortmund3–0SC Freiburg
- 16 Sep 2023SC Freiburg2–4Borussia Dortmund
- 4 Feb 2023Borussia Dortmund5–1SC Freiburg
- 12 Aug 2022SC Freiburg1–3Borussia Dortmund
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.54 | 1.77 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.69 | 0.85 | |
| Match goals | 3.23 | 2.62 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 38% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 46% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 54% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 0% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| SC Freiburg | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.30 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.45 | 5.08 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.64 | 4.62 | |
| Match total | 9.09 | 9.70 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 5/11 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 5/11 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.62 | 1.77 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.77 | 1.92 | |
| Match total | 4.39 | 3.69 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 7/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 5/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| SC Freiburg | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.00 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.10 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 114 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.70league 3.93
Red cards0.15league 0.20
Cards 5+54%league 41%
Fouls21.7league 21.3
Penalties0.31league 0.33
Home wins46%league 48%
SC Freiburg7 with this referee
Record1-2-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L23 Aug 25H · FC Augsburg1–34
- L5 Apr 25H · Borussia Dortmund1–41
- L18 Jan 25A · VfB Stuttgart0–43
- D24 Sep 23A · Eintracht Frankfurt0–02
- W18 Feb 23A · VfL Bochum2–02
Borussia Dortmund6 with this referee
Record4-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W13 Sep 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim2–03
- W5 Apr 25A · SC Freiburg4–10
- W24 Aug 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–00
- L4 Dec 21H · Bayern München2–32
- L6 Nov 21A · RB Leipzig1–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg13 games · scored 20 · conceded 22
4
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
6
31-45
4
6
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
Borussia Dortmund13 games · scored 23 · conceded 11
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
10
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 21 · conceded 13
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
