SC Freiburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
SC Freiburg
2nd · 6 pts · 2 played
WW
5–0Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
17th · 0 pts · 2 played
LL
SC Freiburg61.2%fair odds 1.63
Draw21.4%fair odds 4.67
Borussia Mönchengladbach17.4%fair odds 5.75
Expected goals2.09 – 1.03total 3.13
Likeliest score1–110.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| SC Freiburg ↓ · Borussia Mönchengladbach → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are SC Freiburg goals, columns Borussia Mönchengladbach goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.0%10.01
- 2–19.9%10.07
- 2–09.6%10.42
- 1–08.7%11.54
- 3–16.9%14.43
- 3–06.7%14.93
- 2–25.1%19.46
- 1–24.9%20.37
- 0–04.9%20.48
- 0–14.0%24.82
Winning margin
19.6%
SC Freiburg by 3+
fair 5.11
18.7%
SC Freiburg by 2
fair 5.35
22.9%
SC Freiburg by 1
fair 4.37
21.4%
Draw
fair 4.67
11.1%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 1
fair 9.04
4.6%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 2
fair 21.89
1.7%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 3+
fair 57.30
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
21%5+
SC Freiburg goals
12%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 61.2% | 61.5% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 21.4% | 21.3% | +0.2 pp |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 17.4% | 17.3% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.5% | 61.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.0% | 57.4% | -0.4 pp |
| Expected goals SC Freiburg | 2.09 | 2.11 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.03 | 1.04 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- SC Freiburg win61.2%1.63
- Draw21.4%4.67
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win17.4%5.75
- Double chance SC Freiburg or draw82.6%1.21
- Double chance SC Freiburg or Borussia Mönchengladbach78.6%1.27
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw38.8%2.58
- Draw no bet SC Freiburg77.9%1.28
- Draw no bet Borussia Mönchengladbach22.1%4.52
Goals
- Over 0.595.1%1.05
- Over 1.582.4%1.21
- Over 2.560.5%1.65
- Over 3.538.1%2.62
- Over 4.520.7%4.84
- Under 1.517.6%5.69
- Under 2.539.5%2.53
- Under 3.561.9%1.62
Both teams to score
- Yes57.0%1.75
- No43.0%2.33
- Yes and over 2.547.0%2.13
- SC Freiburg win and yes30.5%3.27
- Draw and yes16.5%6.04
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win and yes9.9%10.06
Team goals
- SC Freiburg over 0.587.7%1.14
- SC Freiburg over 1.561.9%1.62
- SC Freiburg over 2.534.9%2.87
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 0.564.5%1.55
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.527.7%3.61
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 2.58.7%11.52
- SC Freiburg clean sheet35.5%2.81
- Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet12.3%8.11
- SC Freiburg win to nil30.6%3.26
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win to nil7.4%13.43
Handicap
- SC Freiburg −1.538.3%2.61
- SC Freiburg −2.519.6%5.11
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.561.7%1.62
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +2.580.4%1.24
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −1.56.3%15.84
- SC Freiburg +1.593.7%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored19
Favourite won47.4%
Avg chance given to result41.5%
1X2 Brier0.593
Over 2.5 called right78.9%
BTTS called right57.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.5% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 8 | 43.4% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 57.1% | 40.0% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 64.8% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 81.2% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 19 of 19 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5931 | 0.6103 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 40.9% |
| Favourite won | 47.4% | 52.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 19 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 19 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.