SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
SC Freiburg
2nd · 6 pts · 2 played
WW
5–0Full time
Borussia Mönchengladbach
17th · 0 pts · 2 played
LL
Our take
SC Freiburg were clear favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for SC Freiburg. SC Freiburg had 7 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 and had to travel 369 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel369 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
SC Freiburg62%
Draw20%
Borussia Mönchengladbach18%
SC Freiburg57%
Draw23%
Borussia Mönchengladbach20%
SC Freiburg62%
Draw20%
Borussia Mönchengladbach18%
SC Freiburg54%
Draw23%
Borussia Mönchengladbach23%
SC Freiburg62%
Draw20%
Borussia Mönchengladbach18%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
25°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 5 km/h
- Humidity 33%
Referee · GermanyRichard Hempel
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 10
Team strength
SC FreiburgBorussia Mönchengladbach
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
63
AttackIn forecast
34
73
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgBorussia Mönchengladbach
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.50
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.73
0.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
3.14
+0.69
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
17.50
ShotsContext
20.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
29%
On target shareContext
25%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
14.50
49%
Box shareContext
71%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
—
OffsidesContext
5.00
11.50
Shots allowedContext
19.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
10.50
5.00
BlocksContext
—
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
7.00
83%
Save rateContext
67%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
427
PassesContext
421
356
Accurate passesContext
355
83%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.29
Team ratingContext
6.68
11.50
FoulsContext
15.50
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.80
ShotsContext
12.60
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
35%
On target shareContext
31%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
63%
Box shareContext
70%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.78
13.30
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.70
4.30
BlocksContext
3.25
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.10
59%
Save rateContext
76%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
404
PassesContext
435
332
Accurate passesContext
358
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.20
FoulsContext
10.90
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
WW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km838 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 74 · 6 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 369 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 838 km | 826 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1M. Backhaus(G)
33J. Makengo
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
16Y. Engelhardt
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
1M. Nicolas(G)
20D. Herold
4K. Diks
6K. Itakura
29J. Scally
25R. Hack
7K. Stöger
16P. Sander
9F. Honorat
11T. Kleindienst
38A. Bolin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 SC Freiburg wins5 draws0 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
Goals per game2.20 – 0.90
Over 2.570%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 30%
- 22 Feb 2026SC Freiburg2–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 5 Oct 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach0–0SC Freiburg
- 12 Apr 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach1–2SC Freiburg
- 30 Nov 2024SC Freiburg3–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 30 Mar 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach0–3SC Freiburg
- 4 Nov 2023SC Freiburg3–3Borussia Mönchengladbach
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 5.00 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| SC Freiburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.20 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 9.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 15.00 | 11.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.50 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| SC Freiburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 7.78 | 9.45 | 11.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 5.40 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Richard Hempel Germany · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.20league 3.47
Red cards0.40league 0.11
Cards 5+70%league 21%
Fouls26.7league 23.2
Penalties0.10league 0.05
Home wins60%league 53%
SC FreiburgNo previous matches with this referee.
Borussia MönchengladbachNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg2 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach2 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
4
0-15
8
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
4
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
