SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
SC Freiburg
9th · 8 pts · 6 played
LWWDD
2–2Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
8th · 9 pts · 6 played
WLLWL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 56). SC Freiburg had 13.8 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 14.9 and had to travel 243 km.
Away travel243 kmRest days13.8 · 14.9Matches / 14d1 · 0
SC Freiburg37%
Draw26%
Eintracht Frankfurt37%
SC Freiburg36%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt37%
SC Freiburg36%
Draw26%
Eintracht Frankfurt38%
SC Freiburg30%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt45%
SC Freiburg37%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt36%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
RefereeDeniz Aytekin
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 64
Team strength
SC FreiburgEintracht Frankfurt
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
63
AttackIn forecast
54
73
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgEintracht Frankfurt
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.83
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.67
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+1.19
83%
Scored inContext
83%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.50
ShotsContext
14.17
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.17
29%
On target shareContext
37%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
66%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
20%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.00
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.50
BlocksContext
2.17
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
67%
Save rateContext
53%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
398
PassesContext
494
319
Accurate passesContext
416
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.85
8.67
FoulsContext
9.50
14.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+1.28
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.30
ShotsContext
12.60
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
32%
On target shareContext
39%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
70%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
22%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.33
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
3.89
BlocksContext
2.00
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.86
65%
Save rateContext
57%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
384
PassesContext
474
305
Accurate passesContext
398
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.30
FoulsContext
9.90
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km738 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel243 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 14.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 243 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 738 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
33J. Makengo
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
17L. Kübler
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
9L. Höler
19J. Beste
20C. Adamu
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
40Kauã Santos(G)
3A. Theate
4R. Koch
5A. Amenda
13R. Kristensen
16H. Larsson
21N. Brown
42C. Uzun
8F. Chaïbi
20R. Doan
9J. Burkardt
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 3.33
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | SC Freiburg | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | W 6–4 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 A | W 4–1 H |
| Points | 5 of 9 · 1.67 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 SC Freiburg wins3 draws4 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game1.13 – 2.00
Over 2.563%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 17 May 2025SC Freiburg1–3Eintracht Frankfurt
- 14 Jan 2025Eintracht Frankfurt4–1SC Freiburg
- 18 Feb 2024SC Freiburg3–3Eintracht Frankfurt
- 24 Sep 2023Eintracht Frankfurt0–0SC Freiburg
- 27 May 2023Eintracht Frankfurt2–1SC Freiburg
- 25 Jan 2023SC Freiburg1–1Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 5.50 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 83% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| SC Freiburg | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 5.50 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 100% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 83% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 83% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 17% | |
| Games | 8 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.40 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.83 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.67 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| SC Freiburg | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.11 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 7.78 | 9.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.10 | 4.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Deniz Aytekin 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.61league 4.31
Red cards0.22league 0.23
Cards 5+36%league 44%
Fouls23.0league 22.9
Penalties0.30league 0.43
Home wins36%league 41%
SC Freiburg7 with this referee
Record2-4-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W12 Apr 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11
- L27 May 23A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–22
- D25 Jan 23H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–13
- W13 Nov 22H · Union Berlin4–10
- D18 Sep 22A · 1899 Hoffenheim0–02
Eintracht Frankfurt9 with this referee
Record3-1-5
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L12 Sep 25A · Bayer Leverkusen1–33
- W29 Mar 25H · VfB Stuttgart1–01
- L13 Apr 24A · VfB Stuttgart0–33
- W27 May 23H · SC Freiburg2–14
- L22 Apr 23A · Borussia Dortmund0–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg6 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt6 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
6
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 28 · conceded 25
3
6
0-15
4
3
16-30
8
4
31-45
5
3
46-60
6
2
61-75
2
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
