SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Freiburg were clear favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 25). Absences weigh more on FC St. Pauli. SC Freiburg had 2.9 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 8 and had to travel 636 km.
Away travel636 kmRest days2.9 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 1
SC Freiburg68%
Draw19%
FC St. Pauli13%
SC Freiburg65%
Draw21%
FC St. Pauli14%
SC Freiburg67%
Draw20%
FC St. Pauli14%
SC Freiburg60%
Draw22%
FC St. Pauli18%
SC Freiburg66%
Draw20%
FC St. Pauli13%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBenjamin Brand
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 49
Team strength
SC Freiburg
FC St. Pauli
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
63
AttackIn forecast
20
73
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgFC St. Pauli
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.89
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
67%
Scored inContext
44%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
11.44
ShotsContext
11.78
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.11
31%
On target shareContext
35%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
6.44
67%
Box shareContext
54%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.71
11.89
Shots allowedContext
10.78
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.78
3.44
BlocksContext
3.33
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
64%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
397
PassesContext
496
321
Accurate passesContext
406
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.69
9.22
FoulsContext
11.44
13.44
Fouls sufferedContext
11.44
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
1.78
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
70%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.80
ShotsContext
11.60
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
38%
On target shareContext
34%
8.44
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
68%
Box shareContext
54%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.00
Shots allowedContext
10.60
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
3.80
BlocksContext
3.33
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
78%
Save rateContext
67%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
375
PassesContext
500
302
Accurate passesContext
411
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.69
10.40
FoulsContext
10.60
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,925 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
FC St. Pauli
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel636 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
FC St. Pauli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov | 8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 636 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,925 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
20C. Adamu
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
3K. Mets
8E. Smith
5H. Wahl
23Louis Oppie
16J. Fujita
6J. Sands
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
28M. Pereira Lage
19M. Kaars
24C. Metcalfe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- FC St. Pauli-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
FC St. Pauli · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | SC Freiburg | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 0–0 A | L 0–4 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 9 of 21 · 1.29 per game | 3 of 21 · 0.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 SC Freiburg wins0 draws1 FC St. Pauli wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 15 Feb 2025FC St. Pauli0–1SC Freiburg
- 28 Sep 2024SC Freiburg0–3FC St. Pauli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.89 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 56% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 33% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 56% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| SC Freiburg | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.89 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 56% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 56% | |
| Games | 10 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 5.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.57 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 8.63 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.11 | 2.44 | |
| Match total | 5.11 | 4.22 | 4.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| SC Freiburg | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.75 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 8.89 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benjamin Brand Germany · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.10league 4.11
Red cards0.20league 0.21
Cards 5+45%league 43%
Fouls23.4league 22.2
Penalties0.37league 0.37
Home wins33%league 44%
SC Freiburg10 with this referee
Record3-5-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.6
Pens for · against3 · 1
- L17 May 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–32
- D15 Mar 25A · FSV Mainz 052–22
- W15 Feb 25A · FC St. Pauli1–00
- D3 Nov 24H · FSV Mainz 050–01
- W21 Sep 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim3–01
FC St. Pauli2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W12 Apr 25A · Holstein Kiel2–14
- L15 Feb 25H · SC Freiburg0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg9 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
FC St. Pauli9 games · scored 8 · conceded 18
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
