SC Freiburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
SC Freiburg67.8%fair odds 1.48
Draw19.2%fair odds 5.21
FC St. Pauli13.0%fair odds 7.67
Expected goals2.27 – 0.90total 3.18
Likeliest score2–010.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC St. Pauli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| SC Freiburg ↓ · FC St. Pauli → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are SC Freiburg goals, columns FC St. Pauli goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.8%9.28
- 2–19.7%10.27
- 1–09.0%11.07
- 1–19.0%11.07
- 3–08.2%12.25
- 3–17.4%13.55
- 4–04.6%21.56
- 0–04.6%21.59
- 2–24.4%22.72
- 4–14.2%23.86
Winning margin
24.7%
SC Freiburg by 3+
fair 4.05
20.3%
SC Freiburg by 2
fair 4.92
22.7%
SC Freiburg by 1
fair 4.40
19.2%
Draw
fair 5.21
8.8%
FC St. Pauli by 1
fair 11.40
3.2%
FC St. Pauli by 2
fair 31.09
1.0%
FC St. Pauli by 3+
fair 95.72
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
SC Freiburg goals
10%0
23%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
FC St. Pauli goals
41%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 67.8% | 66.5% | +1.3 pp |
| Draw | 19.2% | 20.3% | -1.1 pp |
| FC St. Pauli win | 13.0% | 13.2% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 57.0% | +4.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.8% | 50.6% | +3.2 pp |
| Expected goals SC Freiburg | 2.27 | 2.13 | +0.14 |
| Expected goals FC St. Pauli | 0.90 | 0.84 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- SC Freiburg win67.8%1.48
- Draw19.2%5.21
- FC St. Pauli win13.0%7.67
- Double chance SC Freiburg or draw87.0%1.15
- Double chance SC Freiburg or FC St. Pauli80.8%1.24
- Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw32.2%3.10
- Draw no bet SC Freiburg83.9%1.19
- Draw no bet FC St. Pauli16.1%6.20
Goals
- Over 0.595.4%1.05
- Over 1.583.0%1.20
- Over 2.561.5%1.63
- Over 3.539.2%2.55
- Over 4.521.5%4.65
- Under 1.517.0%5.89
- Under 2.538.5%2.60
- Under 3.560.8%1.64
Both teams to score
- Yes53.8%1.86
- No46.2%2.16
- Yes and over 2.544.8%2.23
- SC Freiburg win and yes31.9%3.14
- Draw and yes14.6%6.86
- FC St. Pauli win and yes7.4%13.60
Team goals
- SC Freiburg over 0.589.7%1.11
- SC Freiburg over 1.566.3%1.51
- SC Freiburg over 2.539.7%2.52
- FC St. Pauli over 0.559.5%1.68
- FC St. Pauli over 1.522.9%4.37
- FC St. Pauli over 2.56.3%15.76
- SC Freiburg clean sheet40.5%2.47
- FC St. Pauli clean sheet10.3%9.70
- SC Freiburg win to nil35.9%2.79
- FC St. Pauli win to nil5.7%17.61
Handicap
- SC Freiburg −1.545.0%2.22
- SC Freiburg −2.524.7%4.05
- FC St. Pauli +1.555.0%1.82
- FC St. Pauli +2.575.3%1.33
- FC St. Pauli −1.54.3%23.47
- SC Freiburg +1.595.7%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored87
Favourite won56.3%
Avg chance given to result43.6%
1X2 Brier0.546
Over 2.5 called right63.2%
BTTS called right57.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 14 | 38.1% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 27 | 45.1% | 40.7% |
| 50–60% | 19 | 54.4% | 57.9% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 65.6% | 82.4% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 74.2% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 69 of 87 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5215 | 0.5321 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.8% | 43.8% |
| Favourite won | 59.4% | 60.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 69 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗FC St. Pauli 0–4 Borussia Mönchengladbach37·26·37
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 87 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.