SC Freiburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
SC Freiburg
5th · 14 pts · 6 played
DWWDW
1–0Full time
Maccabi Tel Aviv
35th · 1 pts · 6 played
LLLLL
SC Freiburg73.3%fair odds 1.36
Draw17.2%fair odds 5.82
Maccabi Tel Aviv9.5%fair odds 10.49
Expected goals2.39 – 0.76total 3.15
Likeliest score2–012.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Maccabi Tel Aviv
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| SC Freiburg ↓ · Maccabi Tel Aviv → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are SC Freiburg goals, columns Maccabi Tel Aviv goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.3%8.15
- 1–09.8%10.17
- 3–09.8%10.21
- 2–19.3%10.77
- 1–18.2%12.24
- 3–17.4%13.49
- 4–05.9%17.06
- 0–04.7%21.32
- 4–14.4%22.54
- 2–23.5%28.45
Winning margin
29.3%
SC Freiburg by 3+
fair 3.41
21.6%
SC Freiburg by 2
fair 4.63
22.4%
SC Freiburg by 1
fair 4.47
17.2%
Draw
fair 5.82
6.8%
Maccabi Tel Aviv by 1
fair 14.71
2.2%
Maccabi Tel Aviv by 2
fair 46.36
0.6%
Maccabi Tel Aviv by 3+
fair 174.03
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+
SC Freiburg goals
9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
22%4+
Maccabi Tel Aviv goals
47%0
36%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 73.3% | 72.7% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 17.2% | 17.4% | -0.3 pp |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv win | 9.5% | 9.9% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 60.8% | +0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 48.7% | 49.0% | -0.4 pp |
| Expected goals SC Freiburg | 2.39 | 2.37 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Maccabi Tel Aviv | 0.76 | 0.77 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- SC Freiburg win73.3%1.36
- Draw17.2%5.82
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win9.5%10.49
- Double chance SC Freiburg or draw90.5%1.11
- Double chance SC Freiburg or Maccabi Tel Aviv82.8%1.21
- Double chance Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw26.7%3.75
- Draw no bet SC Freiburg88.5%1.13
- Draw no bet Maccabi Tel Aviv11.5%8.69
Goals
- Over 0.595.3%1.05
- Over 1.582.6%1.21
- Over 2.561.0%1.64
- Over 3.538.7%2.59
- Over 4.521.1%4.75
- Under 1.517.4%5.76
- Under 2.539.0%2.56
- Under 3.561.3%1.63
Both teams to score
- Yes48.7%2.06
- No51.3%1.95
- Yes and over 2.540.5%2.47
- SC Freiburg win and yes31.1%3.22
- Draw and yes12.5%8.01
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win and yes5.1%19.62
Team goals
- SC Freiburg over 0.590.9%1.10
- SC Freiburg over 1.569.0%1.45
- SC Freiburg over 2.542.9%2.33
- Maccabi Tel Aviv over 0.553.1%1.88
- Maccabi Tel Aviv over 1.517.6%5.69
- Maccabi Tel Aviv over 2.54.1%24.13
- SC Freiburg clean sheet46.9%2.13
- Maccabi Tel Aviv clean sheet9.1%10.96
- SC Freiburg win to nil42.2%2.37
- Maccabi Tel Aviv win to nil4.4%22.56
Handicap
- SC Freiburg −1.550.9%1.96
- SC Freiburg −2.529.3%3.41
- Maccabi Tel Aviv +1.549.1%2.04
- Maccabi Tel Aviv +2.570.7%1.42
- Maccabi Tel Aviv −1.52.7%36.61
- SC Freiburg +1.597.3%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored108
Favourite won58.3%
Avg chance given to result42.1%
1X2 Brier0.553
Over 2.5 called right55.6%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 13 | 38.3% | 38.5% |
| 40–50% | 42 | 44.8% | 45.2% |
| 50–60% | 38 | 54.7% | 76.3% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 66.0% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 74.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 90 of 108 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5451 | 0.5366 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.7% | 44.2% |
| Favourite won | 58.9% | 64.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 90 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 108 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.