SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
SC Freiburg
5th · 14 pts · 6 played
DWWDW
1–0Full time
Maccabi Tel Aviv
35th · 1 pts · 6 played
LLLLL
Our take
SC Freiburg were clear favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 18). SC Freiburg had 4.1 days of rest, Maccabi Tel Aviv 42 and had to travel.
Rest days4.1 · 42Matches / 14d3 · 0
SC Freiburg73%
Draw17%
Maccabi Tel Aviv10%
SC Freiburg72%
Draw18%
Maccabi Tel Aviv10%
SC Freiburg73%
Draw17%
Maccabi Tel Aviv10%
SC Freiburg66%
Draw20%
Maccabi Tel Aviv13%
SC Freiburg73%
Draw17%
Maccabi Tel Aviv10%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
Referee · SwedenMohammed Al-Hakim
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 23
Team strength
SC FreiburgMaccabi Tel Aviv
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
63
AttackIn forecast
19
73
DefenceIn forecast
20
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMaccabi Tel Aviv
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgMaccabi Tel Aviv
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.00
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.04
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.63
83%
Scored inContext
33%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
15.83
ShotsContext
8.33
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
38%
On target shareContext
30%
10.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
67%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
4%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.60
12.33
Shots allowedContext
13.33
3.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
4.60
BlocksContext
3.40
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
87%
Save rateContext
56%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
401
PassesContext
345
323
Accurate passesContext
286
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.52
12.17
FoulsContext
12.83
12.83
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.04
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
80%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.50
ShotsContext
9.38
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
37%
10.78
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
63%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.71
12.80
Shots allowedContext
12.13
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.13
5.33
BlocksContext
3.50
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
69%
Save rateContext
56%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
439
PassesContext
345
362
Accurate passesContext
286
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.52
10.70
FoulsContext
12.88
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.25
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,447 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
Maccabi Tel Aviv |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 42UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,447 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
37M. Rosenfelder
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
6P. Osterhage
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Confirmed XI
90R. Mishpati(G)
4Heitor
13R. Shlomo
41I. Ben Hamo
3R. Revivo
23B. Lederman
30I. Noy
21N. Ben Harush
11S. Jehezkel
34S. Abu Farkhi
42D. Peretz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Maccabi Tel Aviv-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.33
Maccabi Tel Aviv · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.33 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| SC Freiburg | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.33 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 67% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 33% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 67% | |
| Games | 10 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | Maccabi Tel Aviv | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 2.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.83 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.20 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.34 | 3.84 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| SC Freiburg | Maccabi Tel Aviv | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 5.71 | |
| Match total | 10.38 | 9.57 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.10 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mohammed Al-Hakim Sweden · 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.35league 4.09
Red cards0.13league 0.20
Cards 5+26%league 42%
Fouls22.8league 24.4
Penalties0.17league 0.35
Home wins52%league 50%
SC Freiburg1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L5 Oct 23H · West Ham1–21
Maccabi Tel AvivNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg6 games · scored 9 · conceded 3
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Maccabi Tel Aviv6 games · scored 2 · conceded 18
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
9
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Maccabi Tel Aviv10 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
2
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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