SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
RB Leipzig were slight favourites.
RB Leipzig were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 60). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for RB Leipzig. SC Freiburg had 6 days of rest, RB Leipzig 7 and had to travel 494 km.
Away travel494 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
SC Freiburg32%
Draw23%
RB Leipzig45%
SC Freiburg36%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig37%
SC Freiburg32%
Draw23%
RB Leipzig44%
SC Freiburg25%
Draw22%
RB Leipzig53%
SC Freiburg32%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig43%
Over 2.5 68%
Both score 68%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySascha Stegemann
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 97
Team strength
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
63
AttackIn forecast
76
73
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgRB Leipzig
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.97
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
73%
Scored inContext
91%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.06
ShotsContext
15.30
4.21
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.85
35%
On target shareContext
38%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.03
67%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.31
OffsidesContext
2.20
13.36
Shots allowedContext
11.55
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.76
4.33
BlocksContext
3.45
2.91
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.66
64%
Save rateContext
66%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
399
PassesContext
493
326
Accurate passesContext
419
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.05
8.97
FoulsContext
9.15
11.64
Fouls sufferedContext
9.91
1.61
Yellow cardsContext
1.55
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
2.03
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.68
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.90
ShotsContext
14.70
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
40%
On target shareContext
44%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
65%
Box shareContext
72%
17%
ConversionContext
14%
1.70
OffsidesContext
2.17
12.80
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.90
BlocksContext
3.11
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
62%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
389
PassesContext
477
318
Accurate passesContext
403
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.05
10.40
FoulsContext
9.50
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,271 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
RB Leipzig
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel494 km754 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 10 May | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 494 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,271 km | 754 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 105 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
33J. Makengo
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
27N. Höfler
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
44J. Manzambi
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
35M. Finkgräfe
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
39B. Henrichs
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
20F. Ouédraogo
49Y. Diomande
11C. Harder
10B. Gruda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- RB Leipzig+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
1.81points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-3
- Scored
- 1.81
- Conceded
- 1.31
RB Leipzig · Away
1.69points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-5
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.44
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | SC Freiburg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 HL 2–6 A | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | W 3–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 3–3 HL 0–2 A | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | W 3–1 AW 6–0 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | W 5–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 HL 1–4 A | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H | W 2–1 HW 6–0 A |
| Points | 44 of 96 · 1.38 per game | 62 of 96 · 1.94 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
0 SC Freiburg wins3 draws6 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.00
Over 2.544%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets11% · 33%
- 14 Jan 2026RB Leipzig2–0SC Freiburg
- 8 Mar 2025SC Freiburg0–0RB Leipzig
- 26 Oct 2024RB Leipzig3–1SC Freiburg
- 6 Apr 2024SC Freiburg1–4RB Leipzig
- 12 Nov 2023RB Leipzig3–1SC Freiburg
- 6 May 2023SC Freiburg0–1RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 1.97 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.12 | 3.27 | 3.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 70% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 61% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 9% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| SC Freiburg | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.20 | 3.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 68% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.64 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 4.53 | |
| Match total | 9.07 | 10.23 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 14/28 | 67% 20/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 12/28 | 60% 18/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 7/28 | 37% 11/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.21 | 1.73 | |
| Match total | 3.91 | 3.28 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 16/33 | 39% 13/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 12/33 | 21% 7/33 | |
| SC Freiburg | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 6.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 8.76 | 10.67 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.90 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sascha Stegemann Germany · 97 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.22league 3.69
Red cards0.19league 0.17
Cards 5+47%league 37%
Fouls23.2league 20.2
Penalties0.20league 0.35
Home wins33%league 44%
SC Freiburg11 with this referee
Record8-1-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.2
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds1
- W20 Dec 25A · VfL Wolfsburg4–31
- W19 Apr 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–23
- W13 Dec 24H · VfL Wolfsburg3–24
- W14 Apr 24A · SV Darmstadt 981–01
- W20 Jan 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–23
RB Leipzig11 with this referee
Record4-3-4
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W11 Apr 26H · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–04
- L17 Jan 26H · Bayern München1–51
- D4 Oct 25A · Borussia Dortmund1–13
- D14 Feb 25A · FC Augsburg0–01
- L15 Jan 25A · VfB Stuttgart1–27
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg33 games · scored 47 · conceded 56
7
6
0-15
4
5
16-30
7
10
31-45
9
17
46-60
8
5
61-75
12
13
76-90
RB Leipzig33 games · scored 65 · conceded 43
7
0-15
11
6
16-30
13
9
31-45
13
8
46-60
11
5
61-75
10
15
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
4
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
7
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 11
1
0-15
6
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
