SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
SC Freiburg
9th · 11 pts · 5 played
WDWWD
1–0Full time
Red Bull Salzburg
29th · 3 pts · 5 played
LLLWL
Our take
SC Freiburg were slight favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 44). SC Freiburg had 5.2 days of rest, Red Bull Salzburg 14 and had to travel 382 km.
Away travel382 kmRest days5.2 · 14Matches / 14d2 · 1
SC Freiburg53%
Draw24%
Red Bull Salzburg23%
SC Freiburg52%
Draw25%
Red Bull Salzburg23%
SC Freiburg53%
Draw25%
Red Bull Salzburg23%
SC Freiburg45%
Draw26%
Red Bull Salzburg29%
SC Freiburg52%
Draw25%
Red Bull Salzburg23%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
No weather data yet
Referee · AzerbaijanElcin Masiyev
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 3
Team strength
SC FreiburgRed Bull Salzburg
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
63
AttackIn forecast
36
73
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRed Bull Salzburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgRed Bull Salzburg
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.29
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
80%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.40
ShotsContext
12.60
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
46%
On target shareContext
35%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
69%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.20
13.60
Shots allowedContext
15.80
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
4.60
BlocksContext
2.60
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
85%
Save rateContext
65%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
376
PassesContext
415
296
Accurate passesContext
342
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.40
FoulsContext
10.80
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.79
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.54
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
70%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.80
ShotsContext
12.20
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
39%
On target shareContext
43%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
66%
Box shareContext
72%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.89
12.30
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.22
BlocksContext
3.40
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
63%
Save rateContext
67%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
430
PassesContext
457
357
Accurate passesContext
369
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.00
FoulsContext
9.90
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km372 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Red Bull Salzburg
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel382 km773 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
Red Bull Salzburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 382 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 372 km | 773 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 42 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1N. Atubolu(G)
30C. Günter
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
29P. Treu
44J. Manzambi
8M. Eggestein
32V. Grifo
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
20C. Adamu
Red Bull Salzburg
Confirmed XI
1A. Schlager(G)
3A. Terzić
2J. Rasmussen
23J. Gadou
22S. Lainer
5S. Diabaté
18M. Bidstrup
7Clement Bischoff
11Y. Vertessen
20E. Baidoo
21P. Ratkov
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Red Bull Salzburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Red Bull Salzburg+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Red Bull Salzburg · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | SC Freiburg | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna | D 1–1 A | L 1–4 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | Red Bull Salzburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.00 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| SC Freiburg | Red Bull Salzburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | Red Bull Salzburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 2.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 6.80 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 2.80 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| SC Freiburg | Red Bull Salzburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 7.80 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.60 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Elcin Masiyev Azerbaijan · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.67league 4.13
Red cards0.00league 0.19
Cards 5+0%league 42%
Fouls23.0league 24.7
Penalties0.00league 0.36
Home wins0%league 51%
SC FreiburgNo previous matches with this referee.
Red Bull SalzburgNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC Freiburg5 games · scored 8 · conceded 3
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Red Bull Salzburg5 games · scored 5 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
6
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
SC Freiburg10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
3
0-15
4
4
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Red Bull Salzburg10 games · scored 20 · conceded 15
5
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
6
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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