SC Freiburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
SC Freiburg
9th · 11 pts · 5 played
WDWWD
1–0Full time
Red Bull Salzburg
29th · 3 pts · 5 played
LLLWL
SC Freiburg52.7%fair odds 1.90
Draw24.5%fair odds 4.08
Red Bull Salzburg22.9%fair odds 4.37
Expected goals1.78 – 1.10total 2.88
Likeliest score1–111.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Red Bull Salzburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| SC Freiburg ↓ · Red Bull Salzburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are SC Freiburg goals, columns Red Bull Salzburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.6%8.64
- 2–19.8%10.23
- 1–09.4%10.64
- 2–08.9%11.26
- 0–06.2%16.14
- 1–26.1%16.51
- 3–15.8%17.24
- 0–15.6%17.86
- 2–25.4%18.57
- 3–05.3%18.99
Winning margin
13.4%
SC Freiburg by 3+
fair 7.46
16.3%
SC Freiburg by 2
fair 6.14
22.9%
SC Freiburg by 1
fair 4.36
24.5%
Draw
fair 4.08
14.0%
Red Bull Salzburg by 1
fair 7.15
6.2%
Red Bull Salzburg by 2
fair 16.00
2.6%
Red Bull Salzburg by 3+
fair 38.09
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
SC Freiburg goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Red Bull Salzburg goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 52.7% | 52.3% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 24.5% | 25.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Red Bull Salzburg win | 22.9% | 22.7% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 52.4% | +2.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.1% | 54.1% | +2.0 pp |
| Expected goals SC Freiburg | 1.78 | 1.72 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Red Bull Salzburg | 1.10 | 1.06 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- SC Freiburg win52.7%1.90
- Draw24.5%4.08
- Red Bull Salzburg win22.9%4.37
- Double chance SC Freiburg or draw77.1%1.30
- Double chance SC Freiburg or Red Bull Salzburg75.5%1.32
- Double chance Red Bull Salzburg or draw47.3%2.11
- Draw no bet SC Freiburg69.7%1.43
- Draw no bet Red Bull Salzburg30.3%3.30
Goals
- Over 0.593.8%1.07
- Over 1.578.8%1.27
- Over 2.554.9%1.82
- Over 3.532.6%3.07
- Over 4.516.5%6.06
- Under 1.521.2%4.72
- Under 2.545.1%2.22
- Under 3.567.4%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes56.1%1.78
- No43.9%2.28
- Yes and over 2.544.5%2.25
- SC Freiburg win and yes25.6%3.90
- Draw and yes18.3%5.47
- Red Bull Salzburg win and yes12.2%8.21
Team goals
- SC Freiburg over 0.583.1%1.20
- SC Freiburg over 1.553.1%1.88
- SC Freiburg over 2.526.4%3.79
- Red Bull Salzburg over 0.566.8%1.50
- Red Bull Salzburg over 1.530.2%3.32
- Red Bull Salzburg over 2.510.0%10.01
- SC Freiburg clean sheet33.2%3.01
- Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet16.9%5.92
- SC Freiburg win to nil27.0%3.70
- Red Bull Salzburg win to nil10.7%9.36
Handicap
- SC Freiburg −1.529.7%3.37
- SC Freiburg −2.513.4%7.46
- Red Bull Salzburg +1.570.3%1.42
- Red Bull Salzburg +2.586.6%1.15
- Red Bull Salzburg −1.58.9%11.27
- SC Freiburg +1.591.1%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored99
Favourite won58.6%
Avg chance given to result41.6%
1X2 Brier0.561
Over 2.5 called right53.5%
BTTS called right50.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 11 | 38.5% | 45.5% |
| 40–50% | 40 | 44.7% | 47.5% |
| 50–60% | 35 | 54.6% | 74.3% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 66.2% | 44.4% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 73.7% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 81 of 99 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5545 | 0.5440 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.1% | 43.7% |
| Favourite won | 59.3% | 64.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 81 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 99 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.