SC Freiburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Freiburg were slight favourites.
SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Werder Bremen. SC Freiburg had 101.8 days of rest, Werder Bremen 106 and had to travel 569 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel569 kmRest days101.8 · 106Matches / 14d0 · 0
SC Freiburg57%
Draw22%
Werder Bremen20%
SC Freiburg57%
Draw23%
Werder Bremen20%
SC Freiburg56%
Draw23%
Werder Bremen21%
SC Freiburg50%
Draw24%
Werder Bremen26%
SC Freiburg57%
Draw22%
Werder Bremen20%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)
27°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 17 km/h
- Humidity 42%
Referee · GermanyDaniel Siebert
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 131
Team strength
SC Freiburg
Werder Bremen
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
63
AttackIn forecast
56
73
DefenceIn forecast
45
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC FreiburgWerder Bremen
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
—
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
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—
Shots in the boxContext
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—
Box shareContext
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—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
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—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
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—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.72
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.80
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
40%
On target shareContext
33%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
68%
Box shareContext
58%
17%
ConversionContext
10%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.40
Shots allowedContext
13.90
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.90
BlocksContext
4.50
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
61%
Save rateContext
75%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
385
PassesContext
475
314
Accurate passesContext
395
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.40
FoulsContext
9.10
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Freiburg
Rest101.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest106 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel569 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Freiburg |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 101.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 20 May | 106Bundesliga 2025-2026, 16 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 569 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Freiburg
Confirmed XI
1M. Backhaus(G)
33J. Makengo
3P. Lienhart
28M. Ginter
17L. Kübler
16Y. Engelhardt
8M. Eggestein
7D. Scherhant
14Y. Suzuki
19J. Beste
31I. Matanović
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
1K. Hein(G)
2O. Deman
32M. Friedl
5A. Pieper
33Mick Schmetgens
15L. Reis
14S. Lynen
20Chuky
17M. Grüll
10N. Füllkrug
11J. Njinmah
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Freiburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- SC Freiburg+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Werder Bremen-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
SC Freiburg · Home
No home games yet this season.
Werder Bremen · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
7 SC Freiburg wins0 draws1 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets75% · 0%
- 7 Feb 2026SC Freiburg1–0Werder Bremen
- 20 Sep 2025Werder Bremen0–3SC Freiburg
- 21 Feb 2025SC Freiburg5–0Werder Bremen
- 5 Oct 2024Werder Bremen0–1SC Freiburg
- 27 Jan 2024Werder Bremen3–1SC Freiburg
- 26 Aug 2023SC Freiburg1–0Werder Bremen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Freiburg | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 55% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| SC Freiburg | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.80 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Freiburg | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| SC Freiburg | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.89 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 10.78 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniel Siebert Germany · 131 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.43league 3.43
Red cards0.21league 0.14
Cards 5+51%league 29%
Fouls23.0league 25.6
Penalties0.28league 0.14
Home wins42%league 71%
SC Freiburg14 with this referee
Record4-4-6
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- L4 Apr 26H · Bayern München2–32
- W22 Feb 26H · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11
- W13 Sep 25H · VfB Stuttgart3–11
- D4 May 25H · Bayer Leverkusen2–21
- L25 Jan 25H · Bayern München1–24
Werder Bremen5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L2 May 26H · FC Augsburg1–31
- L13 Jan 26A · Borussia Dortmund0–30
- W5 Apr 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–03
- W16 Feb 24A · 1.FC Köln1–04
- W28 Jan 23H · VfL Wolfsburg2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SC FreiburgWerder BremenSC Freiburg10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
4
0-15
6
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
