SC Freiburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
SC Freiburg56.7%fair odds 1.76
Draw23.4%fair odds 4.27
Werder Bremen19.9%fair odds 5.02
Expected goals1.89 – 1.04total 2.93
Likeliest score1–111.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Werder Bremen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| SC Freiburg ↓ · Werder Bremen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.1 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are SC Freiburg goals, columns Werder Bremen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%9.04
- 2–19.9%10.08
- 1–09.6%10.46
- 2–09.6%10.47
- 3–16.2%16.01
- 3–06.0%16.63
- 0–05.9%16.91
- 1–25.5%18.34
- 2–25.1%19.42
- 0–15.0%19.98
Winning margin
15.8%
SC Freiburg by 3+
fair 6.32
17.5%
SC Freiburg by 2
fair 5.70
23.3%
SC Freiburg by 1
fair 4.29
23.4%
Draw
fair 4.27
12.6%
Werder Bremen by 1
fair 7.96
5.3%
Werder Bremen by 2
fair 18.86
2.1%
Werder Bremen by 3+
fair 48.45
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
SC Freiburg goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Werder Bremen goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 56.7% | 56.9% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 23.4% | 23.3% | +0.1 pp |
| Werder Bremen win | 19.9% | 19.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 56.2% | -0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.4% | 55.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Expected goals SC Freiburg | 1.89 | 1.90 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Werder Bremen | 1.04 | 1.04 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- SC Freiburg win56.7%1.76
- Draw23.4%4.27
- Werder Bremen win19.9%5.02
- Double chance SC Freiburg or draw80.1%1.25
- Double chance SC Freiburg or Werder Bremen76.6%1.31
- Double chance Werder Bremen or draw43.3%2.31
- Draw no bet SC Freiburg74.0%1.35
- Draw no bet Werder Bremen26.0%3.84
Goals
- Over 0.594.1%1.06
- Over 1.579.5%1.26
- Over 2.556.0%1.78
- Over 3.533.6%2.97
- Over 4.517.3%5.79
- Under 1.520.5%4.88
- Under 2.544.0%2.27
- Under 3.566.4%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes55.4%1.81
- No44.6%2.24
- Yes and over 2.544.3%2.26
- SC Freiburg win and yes27.2%3.68
- Draw and yes17.5%5.72
- Werder Bremen win and yes10.7%9.33
Team goals
- SC Freiburg over 0.584.9%1.18
- SC Freiburg over 1.556.3%1.78
- SC Freiburg over 2.529.3%3.41
- Werder Bremen over 0.564.6%1.55
- Werder Bremen over 1.527.8%3.59
- Werder Bremen over 2.58.7%11.43
- SC Freiburg clean sheet35.4%2.82
- Werder Bremen clean sheet15.1%6.61
- SC Freiburg win to nil29.5%3.39
- Werder Bremen win to nil9.2%10.85
Handicap
- SC Freiburg −1.533.4%3.00
- SC Freiburg −2.515.8%6.32
- Werder Bremen +1.566.6%1.50
- Werder Bremen +2.584.2%1.19
- Werder Bremen −1.57.4%13.58
- SC Freiburg +1.592.6%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored7
Favourite won42.9%
Avg chance given to result43.7%
1X2 Brier0.566
Over 2.5 called right71.4%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 2 | 42.8% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 56.6% | 33.3% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 7 of 7 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5657 | 0.5788 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.7% | 43.8% |
| Favourite won | 42.9% | 42.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 7 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 7 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.