Sevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sevilla were slight favourites.
Sevilla were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 27). Sevilla had 6.9 days of rest, Oviedo 8.7 and had to travel 665 km.
Away travel665 kmRest days6.9 · 8.7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Sevilla57%
Draw24%
Oviedo19%
Sevilla57%
Draw24%
Oviedo19%
Sevilla56%
Draw25%
Oviedo19%
Sevilla49%
Draw26%
Oviedo24%
Sevilla58%
Draw23%
Oviedo19%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 30
Team strength
Sevilla
Oviedo
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
48
AttackIn forecast
23
57
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SevillaOviedo
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.47
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.47
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
0.71
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
87%
Scored inContext
27%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
10.33
ShotsContext
8.40
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.60
31%
On target shareContext
31%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.14
64%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
6%
3.73
OffsidesContext
2.29
10.73
Shots allowedContext
15.87
4.53
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.47
3.75
BlocksContext
3.80
3.46
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.20
71%
Save rateContext
80%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
419
PassesContext
389
341
Accurate passesContext
324
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.81
14.93
FoulsContext
11.67
13.67
Fouls sufferedContext
11.53
3.13
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
0.73
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
80%
Scored inContext
30%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.30
ShotsContext
9.10
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.60
28%
On target shareContext
29%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
62%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
3.43
OffsidesContext
2.78
10.90
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
3.25
BlocksContext
3.10
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.10
67%
Save rateContext
80%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
415
PassesContext
401
335
Accurate passesContext
336
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.84
14.70
FoulsContext
11.60
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
3.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sevilla
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,079 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Oviedo
Rest8.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel665 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sevilla |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 8.7La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 665 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,079 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
36Oso
32A. López Gallo
6N. Gudelj
15Fábio Cardoso
2J. Carmona Navarro
19B. Mendy
20M. Sow
18L. Agoumé
10A. Sánchez
9A. Adams
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
3Abdel Rahim
16David Carmo
4David Costas
24Lucas Ahijado
11S. Colombatto
20L. Dendoncker
7I. Chaira
5Alberto Reina
10H. Hassan
23S. Rondón
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sevilla
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sevilla+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Oviedo-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Sevilla · Home
1.00points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.71
Oviedo · Away
0.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-5
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 13 this season
| Opponent | Sevilla | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Espanyol | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Mallorca | L 1–3 H | D 0–0 H |
| Barcelona | W 4–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Elche | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Girona | W 2–0 A | D 3–3 A |
| Getafe | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Athletic Club | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 14 of 39 · 1.08 per game | 10 of 39 · 0.77 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sevilla | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.47 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.47 | |
| Match goals | 2.93 | 1.93 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 27% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 20% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 73% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Sevilla | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.00 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sevilla | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.07 | 3.53 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 6.27 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 9.80 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 10/15 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 10/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 7/15 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 5.33 | 3.46 | 4.39 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 11/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 10/15 | 27% 4/15 | |
| Sevilla | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.20 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 3.00 | 4.39 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 4.13
Red cards0.27league 0.28
Cards 5+60%league 46%
Fouls27.3league 24.7
Penalties0.30league 0.32
Home wins30%league 48%
Sevilla6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.3.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L25 Aug 25H · Getafe1–22
- L11 May 24A · Villarreal2–35
- L25 Feb 24A · Real Madrid0–13
- D3 Dec 23H · Villarreal1–13
- D7 Oct 23H · Rayo Vallecano2–25
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sevilla15 games · scored 20 · conceded 24
2
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
5
7
76-90
Oviedo14 games · scored 7 · conceded 22
2
0-15
5
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
6
76-90
Oviedo9 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
0-15
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
