Sevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Rayo Vallecano. Sevilla had 7 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 4 and had to travel 390 km.
Away travel390 kmRest days7 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 2
Sevilla33%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano39%
Sevilla39%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano34%
Sevilla33%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano38%
Sevilla27%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano46%
Sevilla33%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano39%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Muñiz Ruiz
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.45
- Matches 38
Team strength
Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
48
AttackIn forecast
61
57
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SevillaRayo Vallecano
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.23
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
81%
Scored inContext
62%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
11.08
ShotsContext
13.08
3.85
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
35%
On target shareContext
34%
7.31
Shots in the boxContext
7.42
64%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
3.29
OffsidesContext
2.39
10.50
Shots allowedContext
11.42
4.35
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.48
BlocksContext
3.46
3.32
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.79
70%
Save rateContext
66%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
422
PassesContext
423
348
Accurate passesContext
350
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.73
FoulsContext
12.58
12.85
Fouls sufferedContext
11.15
2.81
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.00
ShotsContext
13.70
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
38%
On target shareContext
38%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
61%
Box shareContext
56%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.78
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.80
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.11
BlocksContext
3.30
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
66%
Save rateContext
60%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
429
PassesContext
405
359
Accurate passesContext
328
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.77
14.80
FoulsContext
11.90
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sevilla
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rayo Vallecano
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel390 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sevilla |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 390 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
4Kike Salas
6N. Gudelj
5T. Nianzou
3César Azpilicueta
36Oso
20M. Sow
18L. Agoumé
16Juanlu Sánchez
10A. Sánchez
9A. Adams
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
22A. Espino
32N. Mendy
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
23Óscar Valentín
21Fran Pérez
7Isi Palazón
15Gerard Gumbau
14Carlos Martín
19Jorge de Frutos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sevilla
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sevilla-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Rayo Vallecano+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Sevilla · Home
1.15points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-6
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.46
Rayo Vallecano · Away
0.85points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-8
- Scored
- 0.85
- Conceded
- 1.69
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Sevilla | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Alaves | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Mallorca | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Elche | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Levante | L 0–3 H | W 3–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Oviedo | W 4–0 H | W 3–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Espanyol | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 A | W 3–0 HL 2–3 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Barcelona | W 4–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 27 of 75 · 1.08 per game | 30 of 75 · 1.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Sevilla wins4 draws1 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game1.33 – 0.78
Over 2.533%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets33% · 11%
- 28 Sep 2025Rayo Vallecano0–1Sevilla
- 1 Mar 2025Rayo Vallecano1–1Sevilla
- 24 Nov 2024Sevilla1–0Rayo Vallecano
- 5 Feb 2024Rayo Vallecano1–2Sevilla
- 7 Oct 2023Sevilla2–2Rayo Vallecano
- 19 Feb 2023Rayo Vallecano1–1Sevilla
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sevilla | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.58 | 1.23 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 2.23 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 42% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 42% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 38% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Sevilla | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.90 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sevilla | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.04 | 5.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.68 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 9.72 | 10.73 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 15/25 | 77% 20/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 15/25 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 10/25 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.96 | 2.77 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.15 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 5.11 | 4.96 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 18/26 | 73% 19/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 62% 16/26 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Sevilla | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 10.00 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 6.00 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz Spain · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.92league 4.19
Red cards0.39league 0.28
Cards 5+61%league 46%
Fouls24.8league 24.5
Penalties0.45league 0.37
Home wins55%league 47%
Sevilla3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.4.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L20 Dec 25A · Real Madrid0–25
- W5 Oct 25H · Barcelona4–15
- W14 Apr 24A · Las Palmas2–03
Rayo Vallecano2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.4.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D18 Feb 24H · Real Madrid1–14
- L2 Sep 23A · Real Betis0–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sevilla26 games · scored 34 · conceded 41
3
3
0-15
5
5
16-30
5
8
31-45
7
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
9
12
76-90
Rayo Vallecano26 games · scored 26 · conceded 32
2
4
0-15
3
4
16-30
10
3
31-45
3
6
46-60
4
5
61-75
4
10
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
7
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
