Sevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sevilla. Sevilla had 84 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 84 and had to travel 390 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel390 kmRest days84 · 84Matches / 14d0 · 0
Sevilla36%
Draw26%
Rayo Vallecano38%
Sevilla35%
Draw26%
Rayo Vallecano39%
Sevilla36%
Draw26%
Rayo Vallecano38%
Sevilla29%
Draw26%
Rayo Vallecano45%
Sevilla36%
Draw26%
Rayo Vallecano37%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
Warm
28°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 57%
Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 53
Team strength
Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
48
AttackIn forecast
61
57
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SevillaRayo Vallecano
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
50%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.00
ShotsContext
15.60
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
23%
On target shareContext
37%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.89
54%
Box shareContext
52%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.30
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.40
Shots allowedContext
11.70
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
2.50
BlocksContext
3.80
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
63%
Save rateContext
81%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
352
PassesContext
395
278
Accurate passesContext
322
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.94
14.00
FoulsContext
15.30
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
3.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sevilla
Rest84 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rayo Vallecano
Rest84 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel390 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sevilla |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 84La Liga 2025-2026, 23 May | 84La Liga 2025-2026, 23 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 390 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
17G. Suazo
4Kike Salas
12A. Sangante
2Juan Iglesias
27Nico Guillén
6L. Agoumé
19Oso
18Jon Guridi
30Miguel Sierra
16Isaac Romero
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
20I. Balliu
6P. Ciss
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
23Óscar Valentín
8Unai López
18Álvaro García
7Isi Palazón
19Jorge de Frutos
11R. Nteka
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sevilla
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sevilla+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rayo Vallecano+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sevilla · Home
No home games yet this season.
Rayo Vallecano · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Sevilla wins5 draws1 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game1.30 – 0.80
Over 2.530%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets30% · 10%
- 8 Mar 2026Sevilla1–1Rayo Vallecano
- 28 Sep 2025Rayo Vallecano0–1Sevilla
- 1 Mar 2025Rayo Vallecano1–1Sevilla
- 24 Nov 2024Sevilla1–0Rayo Vallecano
- 5 Feb 2024Rayo Vallecano1–2Sevilla
- 7 Oct 2023Sevilla2–2Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sevilla | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 53% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Sevilla | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.30 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sevilla | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 8.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 8.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Sevilla | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.20 | 8.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 3.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 5.80 | 8.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 7.00
Red cards0.23league 1.00
Cards 5+30%league 100%
Fouls21.9league 29.0
Penalties0.32league 0.00
Home wins51%league 100%
Sevilla4 with this referee
Record0-4-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D1 Mar 26A · Real Betis2–23
- D19 Jan 26A · Elche2–21
- D11 Mar 24A · Almeria2–21
- D21 Oct 23H · Real Madrid1–15
Rayo Vallecano5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W17 May 26H · Villarreal2–02
- W15 Feb 26H · Atletico Madrid3–01
- D15 Dec 25H · Real Betis0–04
- D24 May 25H · Mallorca0–02
- L26 Feb 24A · Girona0–35
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
SevillaRayo VallecanoSevilla10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
