Shakhtar Donetsk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Shakhtar Donetsk46.1%fair odds 2.17
Draw24.9%fair odds 4.02
AEK Athens FC29.0%fair odds 3.44
Expected goals1.70 – 1.31total 3.02
Likeliest score1–111.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
AEK Athens FC
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Shakhtar Donetsk ↓ · AEK Athens FC → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Shakhtar Donetsk goals, columns AEK Athens FC goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%8.67
- 2–19.3%10.72
- 1–07.8%12.88
- 1–27.2%13.90
- 2–07.1%14.07
- 2–26.1%16.33
- 0–15.9%17.09
- 0–05.5%18.25
- 3–15.3%18.88
- 0–24.2%23.68
Winning margin
10.6%
Shakhtar Donetsk by 3+
fair 9.40
14.1%
Shakhtar Donetsk by 2
fair 7.08
21.3%
Shakhtar Donetsk by 1
fair 4.70
24.9%
Draw
fair 4.02
16.3%
AEK Athens FC by 1
fair 6.14
8.4%
AEK Athens FC by 2
fair 11.91
4.4%
AEK Athens FC by 3+
fair 22.91
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Shakhtar Donetsk goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
AEK Athens FC goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk win | 46.1% | 45.7% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 24.9% | 25.2% | -0.3 pp |
| AEK Athens FC win | 29.0% | 29.1% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 56.8% | +1.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.4% | 59.4% | +0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Shakhtar Donetsk | 1.70 | 1.67 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals AEK Athens FC | 1.31 | 1.29 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Shakhtar Donetsk win46.1%2.17
- Draw24.9%4.02
- AEK Athens FC win29.0%3.44
- Double chance Shakhtar Donetsk or draw71.0%1.41
- Double chance Shakhtar Donetsk or AEK Athens FC75.1%1.33
- Double chance AEK Athens FC or draw53.9%1.85
- Draw no bet Shakhtar Donetsk61.3%1.63
- Draw no bet AEK Athens FC38.7%2.59
Goals
- Over 0.594.5%1.06
- Over 1.580.9%1.24
- Over 2.558.0%1.72
- Over 3.535.6%2.81
- Over 4.518.7%5.33
- Under 1.519.1%5.24
- Under 2.542.0%2.38
- Under 3.564.4%1.55
Both teams to score
- Yes60.4%1.66
- No39.6%2.52
- Yes and over 2.548.8%2.05
- Shakhtar Donetsk win and yes24.6%4.06
- Draw and yes19.4%5.15
- AEK Athens FC win and yes16.3%6.13
Team goals
- Shakhtar Donetsk over 0.581.8%1.22
- Shakhtar Donetsk over 1.550.8%1.97
- Shakhtar Donetsk over 2.524.4%4.11
- AEK Athens FC over 0.573.1%1.37
- AEK Athens FC over 1.537.8%2.65
- AEK Athens FC over 2.514.6%6.85
- Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet26.9%3.72
- AEK Athens FC clean sheet18.2%5.49
- Shakhtar Donetsk win to nil21.4%4.67
- AEK Athens FC win to nil12.7%7.85
Handicap
- Shakhtar Donetsk −1.524.8%4.04
- Shakhtar Donetsk −2.510.6%9.40
- AEK Athens FC +1.575.2%1.33
- AEK Athens FC +2.589.4%1.12
- AEK Athens FC −1.512.8%7.84
- Shakhtar Donetsk +1.587.2%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored28
Favourite won75.0%
Avg chance given to result51.5%
1X2 Brier0.447
Over 2.5 called right71.4%
BTTS called right64.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 39.7% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 10 | 45.8% | 70.0% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 54.9% | 85.7% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 66.6% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 79.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 85.0% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 28 of 28 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4472 | 0.4566 |
| Avg chance given to result | 51.5% | 52.2% |
| Favourite won | 75.0% | 64.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 17 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 10 of 28 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.