Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC – 14 Oct 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 2 Wed, Oct 14 · 20:00 Stamford Bridge, London

Shakhtar Donetsk 24th · 1 pts · 1 played D

3–1Full time

AEK Athens FC 17th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Shakhtar Donetsk were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Shakhtar Donetsk had 34.1 days of rest, AEK Athens FC 36.1 and had to travel 2,392 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel2,392 kmRest days34.1 · 36.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Shakhtar Donetsk47%

Draw24%

AEK Athens FC30%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.31

Shakhtar Donetsk45%

Draw26%

AEK Athens FC29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

Shakhtar Donetsk47%

Draw24%

AEK Athens FC30%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.31

Shakhtar Donetsk39%

Draw24%

AEK Athens FC37%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.47

Shakhtar Donetsk46%

Draw24%

AEK Athens FC30%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.29

Over 2.5 58% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

17°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 14 km/h
Humidity 72%

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 173

Team strength

Shakhtar Donetsk

AEK Athens FC

56 L90 StrengthIn forecast 55

57 Current StrengthIn forecast 53

54 AttackIn forecast 50

62 DefenceIn forecast 57

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Shakhtar Donetsk

Attack—

Defense risk—

AEK Athens FC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Shakhtar Donetsk

AEK Athens FC

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

0.98 xGVia Att/Def 2.00

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

+0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

100% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 60%

13.00 ShotsContext 15.60

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

31% On target shareContext 37%

8.29 Shots in the boxContext 10.70

64% Box shareContext 68%

13% ConversionContext 12%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.75

10.00 Shots allowedContext 10.10

4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

2.29 BlocksContext 2.11

2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

59% Save rateContext 75%

56% PossessionIn forecast 53%

456 PassesContext 422

400 Accurate passesContext 361

88% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.77 Team ratingContext 7.07

10.86 FoulsContext 13.50

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Shakhtar Donetsk D

Rest34.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel2,133 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 53 · 1 pts vs 0.7 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected

D10 SepA · PSV Eindhoven1–10.6 xPts

AEK Athens FC W

Rest36.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel2,392 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 61 · 3 pts vs 1.7 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected

W8 SepH · Lask Linz1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Shakhtar Donetsk	AEK Athens FC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	34.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Sep	36.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 8 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	2,133 km	2,392 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Shakhtar Donetsk Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

31D. Riznyk(G)

13Pedro Henrique 22M. Matviienko 5V. Bondar 17Vinícius Tobias

27O. Ocheretko

11Newerton 6Marlon Gomes 10Pedrinho 30Alisson Santana

9Kauã Elias

AEK Athens FC Confirmed XI

4-4-2

91A. Brignoli(G)

3S. Pilios 44Filipe Relvas 2H. Moukoudi 12L. Rota

11A. Koita 18R. Marin 27M. Vitális 14L. Majer

9L. Jović 90Zine

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Shakhtar Donetsk Absences are shown before kick-off

AEK Athens FC Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Shakhtar Donetsk+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
AEK Athens FC+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Shakhtar Donetsk · Home No home games yet this season.

AEK Athens FC · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Shakhtar Donetsk	AEK Athens FC	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	1.00	3.02
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Shakhtar Donetsk	AEK Athens FC	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.67
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	2.00	1.67	3.02
Over 1.5	100%	33%
Over 2.5	0%	33%	58%
Over 3.5	0%	33%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	1	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Shakhtar Donetsk	AEK Athens FC	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	7.00
Corners conceded	3.00	3.00
Match total	6.00	10.00	9.36
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	6.00	1.00
Opponent cards	3.00	2.00
Match total	9.00	3.00	3.82
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Shakhtar Donetsk	AEK Athens FC	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	6.10
Corners conceded	3.17	2.60
Match total	8.50	8.70	9.36
Over 8.5	33% 2/6	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.80
Opponent cards	2.10	1.80
Match total	4.80	3.60	3.82
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 173 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.93league 3.62

Red cards0.14league 0.17

Cards 5+40%league 38%

Fouls22.0league 22.8

Penalties0.21league 0.21

Home wins40%league 59%

Shakhtar Donetsk

No previous matches with this referee.

AEK Athens FC

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.