Shakhtar Donetsk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Shakhtar Donetsk29.1%fair odds 3.44
Draw24.8%fair odds 4.03
Sporting CP46.1%fair odds 2.17
Expected goals1.32 – 1.71total 3.03
Likeliest score1–111.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sporting CP
Baseline: average Primeira Liga opponent
Attack Downlift
−17%
Expected goals
Baseline2.07Forecast1.71
Conceding Risk
+26%
Expected goals conceded
Baseline1.05Forecast1.32
Clean Sheet
−8.4 pp
Chance of conceding no goals
Baseline35.1%Forecast26.7%
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Shakhtar Donetsk ↓ · Sporting CP → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Shakhtar Donetsk goals, columns Sporting CP goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%8.72
- 1–29.3%10.72
- 0–17.7%13.04
- 2–17.2%13.90
- 0–27.1%14.16
- 2–26.2%16.24
- 1–05.8%17.28
- 0–05.4%18.53
- 1–35.3%18.79
- 2–04.2%23.79
Winning margin
4.4%
Shakhtar Donetsk by 3+
fair 22.71
8.4%
Shakhtar Donetsk by 2
fair 11.88
16.3%
Shakhtar Donetsk by 1
fair 6.15
24.8%
Draw
fair 4.03
21.3%
Sporting CP by 1
fair 4.70
14.1%
Sporting CP by 2
fair 7.07
10.7%
Sporting CP by 3+
fair 9.34
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Shakhtar Donetsk goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
Sporting CP goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk win | 29.1% | 29.1% | -0.0 pp |
| Draw | 24.8% | 25.3% | -0.5 pp |
| Sporting CP win | 46.1% | 45.6% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 56.4% | +2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.7% | 59.2% | +1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Shakhtar Donetsk | 1.32 | 1.29 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Sporting CP | 1.71 | 1.66 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Shakhtar Donetsk win29.1%3.44
- Draw24.8%4.03
- Sporting CP win46.1%2.17
- Double chance Shakhtar Donetsk or draw53.9%1.86
- Double chance Shakhtar Donetsk or Sporting CP75.2%1.33
- Double chance Sporting CP or draw70.9%1.41
- Draw no bet Shakhtar Donetsk38.7%2.59
- Draw no bet Sporting CP61.3%1.63
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.581.1%1.23
- Over 2.558.4%1.71
- Over 3.536.0%2.78
- Over 4.519.0%5.26
- Under 1.518.9%5.30
- Under 2.541.6%2.40
- Under 3.564.0%1.56
Both teams to score
- Yes60.7%1.65
- No39.3%2.54
- Yes and over 2.549.2%2.03
- Shakhtar Donetsk win and yes16.4%6.09
- Draw and yes19.4%5.15
- Sporting CP win and yes24.8%4.03
Team goals
- Shakhtar Donetsk over 0.573.3%1.36
- Shakhtar Donetsk over 1.538.1%2.63
- Shakhtar Donetsk over 2.514.8%6.77
- Sporting CP over 0.581.9%1.22
- Sporting CP over 1.551.0%1.96
- Sporting CP over 2.524.6%4.07
- Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet18.1%5.54
- Sporting CP clean sheet26.7%3.75
- Shakhtar Donetsk win to nil12.7%7.90
- Sporting CP win to nil21.3%4.70
Handicap
- Shakhtar Donetsk −1.512.8%7.80
- Shakhtar Donetsk −2.54.4%22.71
- Sporting CP +1.587.2%1.15
- Sporting CP +2.595.6%1.05
- Sporting CP −1.524.8%4.02
- Shakhtar Donetsk +1.575.2%1.33
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored35
Favourite won71.4%
Avg chance given to result49.9%
1X2 Brier0.462
Over 2.5 called right74.3%
BTTS called right62.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 39.6% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 13 | 45.7% | 69.2% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 55.5% | 77.8% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.7% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 79.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 6 | 85.0% | 83.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 35 of 35 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4618 | 0.4614 |
| Avg chance given to result | 49.9% | 50.9% |
| Favourite won | 71.4% | 65.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 17 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 16 of 35 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.