Shakhtar Donetsk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP are slight favourites.
Sporting CP are the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Shakhtar Donetsk. Shakhtar Donetsk have 12.9 days of rest, Sporting CP 3.9 and have to travel 3,352 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel3,352 kmRest days12.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Shakhtar Donetsk29%
Draw25%
Sporting CP46%
Shakhtar Donetsk26%
Draw26%
Sporting CP48%
Shakhtar Donetsk29%
Draw25%
Sporting CP46%
Shakhtar Donetsk23%
Draw23%
Sporting CP54%
Shakhtar Donetsk29%
Draw25%
Sporting CP46%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Kiev)
5°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 16%
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 66%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Shakhtar Donetsk and Sporting CP. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Sporting CP
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.71xG against1.04
-
Trend
Sporting CP
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Sporting CP
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Shakhtar Donetsk
−0.23
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.04xG against1.27
Attack
-
Insight
Sporting CP
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.71xG against1.04
-
Trend
Sporting CP
2.5
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Sporting CP
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Sporting CP
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Sporting CP
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Shakhtar Donetsk
−0.23
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.04xG against1.27
Team strength
Shakhtar DonetskSporting CP
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
84
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
54
AttackIn forecast
75
62
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
83
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack−17%
Defense risk+26%
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Shakhtar DonetskSporting CP
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.76
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.00
ShotsContext
9.50
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
30%
On target shareContext
53%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
63%
Box shareContext
61%
20%
ConversionContext
26%
—
OffsidesContext
—
11.50
Shots allowedContext
15.50
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.50
BlocksContext
3.00
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
60%
Save rateContext
100%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
418
PassesContext
402
358
Accurate passesContext
333
86%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.63
Team ratingContext
7.16
15.50
FoulsContext
12.50
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
3.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.79
100%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.88
ShotsContext
11.90
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
31%
On target shareContext
45%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
62%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
21%
2.80
OffsidesContext
1.88
10.38
Shots allowedContext
10.40
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
2.38
BlocksContext
2.33
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
59%
Save rateContext
81%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
455
PassesContext
521
400
Accurate passesContext
457
88%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.00
11.50
FoulsContext
11.70
11.75
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Shakhtar Donetsk
DW
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,351 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 66 · 4 pts vs 2.2 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Sporting CP
WDDWW
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel3,352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
Form 83 · 11 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Shakhtar Donetsk |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 35 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Oct | 3.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 30 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 3,352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,351 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Shakhtar Donetsk
Last XI · not confirmed
31D. Riznyk(G)
13Pedro Henrique
22M. Matviienko
5V. Bondar
17Vinícius Tobias
27O. Ocheretko
11Newerton
6Marlon Gomes
10Pedrinho
30Alisson Santana
9Kauã Elias
Sporting CP
Last XI · not confirmed
30Kaique(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
72Eduardo Quaresma
22Iván Fresneda
77I. Doumbia
5Sergi Altimira
8João Simões
19N. Irankunda
97L. Suárez
10Geny Catamo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Shakhtar Donetsk
No reported absences
Sporting CP
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Shakhtar Donetsk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Shakhtar Donetsk · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Sporting CP · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 70% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 7.00 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 8.29 | 6.89 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Shakhtar Donetsk2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Sporting CP2 games · scored 5 · conceded 1
1
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Shakhtar Donetsk10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
6
16-30
3
1
31-45
6
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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