Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Feb 27 · 16:00 Freethielstadion, Beveren
SK Beveren 11th · 9 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Charleroi 3rd · 21 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel90 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
SK Beveren—%
Draw—%
Charleroi—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Beveren)

Forecast from 12 Feb

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for SK Beveren and Charleroi. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

SK BeverenCharleroi
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
25 Current StrengthIn forecast 38
18 AttackIn forecast 43
20 DefenceIn forecast 50
25 Form indexContext 80
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SK Beveren

Attack—
Defense risk—

Charleroi

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SK BeverenCharleroi
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.88
0.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.86
2.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.73
+0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
63% Scored inContext 100%
38% Clean sheetsContext 50%
10.25 ShotsContext 16.75
3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.63
32% On target shareContext 34%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.63
69% Box shareContext 69%
10% ConversionContext 12%
1.88 OffsidesContext 1.86
15.50 Shots allowedContext 10.88
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
3.50 BlocksContext 4.57
4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71
71% Save rateContext 79%
51% PossessionIn forecast 57%
469 PassesContext 496
382 Accurate passesContext 421
81% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.83 Team ratingContext 7.10
8.75 FoulsContext 10.13
10.88 Fouls sufferedContext 13.38
1.88 Yellow cardsContext 1.13
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80
0.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.84
2.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.71
+0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.06
63% Scored inContext 100%
38% Clean sheetsContext 50%
10.25 ShotsContext 16.80
3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70
32% On target shareContext 34%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.80
69% Box shareContext 70%
10% ConversionContext 11%
1.88 OffsidesContext 2.00
15.50 Shots allowedContext 10.40
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.63
3.50 BlocksContext 4.50
4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67
71% Save rateContext 83%
51% PossessionIn forecast 58%
469 PassesContext 484
382 Accurate passesContext 411
81% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.83 Team ratingContext 7.08
8.75 FoulsContext 10.10
10.88 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50
1.88 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 8 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SK Beveren
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km52 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 25 · 6 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
  • L9 OctH · Lommel United1–31.4 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Kortrijk0–11.6 xPts
  • W12 SepH · St. Truiden2–01.1 xPts
  • W6 SepH · OH Leuven3–01.7 xPts
  • L28 AugA · Genk0–40.7 xPts
Charleroi
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel90 km247 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 80 · 12 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected
  • W11 OctA · Standard Liege1–01.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Cercle Brugge3–21.9 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Zulte Waregem1–01.2 xPts
  • L5 SepH · Union St. Gilloise2–31.2 xPts
  • W29 AugA · Kortrijk3–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
SK Beveren Charleroi
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 20 Feb7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 20 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km90 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways52 km247 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SK Beveren Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Lommel United (H) 1–3, 9 Oct
1J. Schenk(G)
4C. Janssens 31B. Godeau 35Y. Gomis 25C. Konaté
44C. Conde 18S. Dewaele
17J. Margaritha 22C. Brüls 5C. Lokesa
9M. Kaboré
Charleroi Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Standard Liege (A) 1–0, 11 Oct
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita 95C. Keita 4A. Ousou 3K. Van Den Kerkhof
18Y. Khalifi 6A. Boukamir
20F. Mbemba 8J. Romsaas 14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
SK Beveren Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Charleroi Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

SK Beveren · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
1.75
Conceded
0.75
Charleroi · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
1.50
Conceded
0.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentSK BeverenCharleroi
Lommel United L 1–3 H W 1–0 A
Kortrijk L 0–1 A W 3–1 A
OH Leuven W 3–0 H W 3–1 H
Zulte Waregem L 0–4 A W 1–0 A
Points3 of 12 · 0.75 per game12 of 12 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

SK BeverenCharleroiForecast
Scored per game 1.002.00
Conceded per game 1.750.88
Match goals 2.752.88
Over 1.5 75%63%
Over 2.5 63%50%
Over 3.5 38%50%
Both teams scored 25%50%
Clean sheets 38%50%
Failed to score 38%0%
Games88
SK BeverenCharleroiForecast
Scored per game 1.001.60
Conceded per game 1.751.00
Match goals 2.752.60
Over 1.5 75%60%
Over 2.5 63%40%
Over 3.5 38%40%
Both teams scored 25%40%
Clean sheets 38%40%
Failed to score 38%20%
Games810

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SK BeverenCharleroiLeague
Corners
Corners won5.005.50
Corners conceded4.384.38
Match total9.389.8810.01
Over 8.550% 4/863% 5/8
Over 9.538% 3/863% 5/8
Over 10.538% 3/863% 5/8
Cards
Cards2.001.13
Opponent cards1.251.38
Match total3.252.513.36
Over 3.538% 3/825% 2/8
Over 4.525% 2/80% 0/8
SK BeverenCharleroiLeague
Corners
Corners won5.006.50
Corners conceded4.384.70
Match total9.3811.2010.01
Over 8.550% 4/870% 7/10
Over 9.538% 3/870% 7/10
Over 10.538% 3/870% 7/10
Cards
Cards2.001.40
Opponent cards1.251.40
Match total3.252.803.36
Over 3.538% 3/830% 3/10
Over 4.525% 2/810% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

SK Beveren8 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 5 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 1 76-90
Charleroi8 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 1 16-30
3 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 76-90
SK Beveren8 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
2 5 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 1 76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 1 61-75
4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Lommel United Kortrijk Feb 2716:00 KVC Westerlo KV Mechelen Feb 2716:00 Anderlecht Club Brugge KV Feb 2716:00 Standard Liege Gent Feb 2716:00 SK Beveren Charleroi Feb 2716:00 Antwerp Zulte Waregem Feb 2716:00 Cercle Brugge OH Leuven Feb 2716:00 Genk Union St. Gilloise Feb 2716:00 RAAL La Louvière St. Truiden Feb 2716:00