Sparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Sparta Rotterdam
6th · 16 pts · 10 played
LLDWW
0–1Full time
AZ Alkmaar
3rd · 21 pts · 10 played
DLWWW
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 24). Sparta Rotterdam had 7.9 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 6.9 and had to travel 81 km.
Away travel81 kmRest days7.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sparta Rotterdam27%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar47%
Sparta Rotterdam27%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar47%
Sparta Rotterdam27%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar48%
Sparta Rotterdam21%
Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar55%
Sparta Rotterdam27%
Draw27%
AZ Alkmaar46%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 92
Team strength
Sparta RotterdamAZ Alkmaar
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
32
AttackIn forecast
52
17
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sparta RotterdamAZ Alkmaar
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.97
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
80%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.00
ShotsContext
17.80
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
35%
On target shareContext
33%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
11.60
68%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.29
OffsidesContext
1.29
17.60
Shots allowedContext
12.80
6.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.90
BlocksContext
4.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
61%
Save rateContext
78%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
350
PassesContext
457
273
Accurate passesContext
382
78%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.99
7.50
FoulsContext
10.90
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
2.07
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.27
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
18.50
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
35%
On target shareContext
34%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
12.50
68%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.29
OffsidesContext
1.63
17.60
Shots allowedContext
13.40
6.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.90
BlocksContext
4.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
61%
Save rateContext
78%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
350
PassesContext
432
273
Accurate passesContext
360
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.97
7.50
FoulsContext
11.00
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AZ Alkmaar
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel81 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Rotterdam |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 81 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5T. Quintero
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2S. Sambo
6P. Clement
8J. Toornstra
11A. Oufkir
10L. Duijvestijn
7M. van Bergen
9T. Lauritsen
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
34M. de Wit
5Alexandre Penetra
3W. Goes
30D. Kasius
26K. Smit
10S. Mijnans
6P. Koopmeiners
17I. Jensen
9T. Parrott
7Weslley Patati
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- AZ Alkmaar-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Sparta Rotterdam · Home
1.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 2.60
AZ Alkmaar · Away
2.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Sparta Rotterdam | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Groningen | W 2–0 A | W 4–1 H |
| Ajax | D 3–3 H | W 2–0 A |
| Heracles | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Feyenoord | L 0–4 H | D 3–3 H |
| Utrecht | W 2–1 H | W 4–1 H |
| Points | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game | 16 of 18 · 2.67 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Sparta Rotterdam wins0 draws2 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 26 Jan 2025AZ Alkmaar1–2Sparta Rotterdam
- 24 Nov 2024Sparta Rotterdam1–2AZ Alkmaar
- 17 Sep 2023AZ Alkmaar2–0Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Rotterdam | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.60 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.60 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Rotterdam | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.80 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.90 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.22 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 5.30 | 3.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 92 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.37league 3.33
Red cards0.13league 0.20
Cards 5+27%league 32%
Fouls21.6league 22.2
Penalties0.26league 0.27
Home wins42%league 49%
Sparta Rotterdam6 with this referee
Record1-1-4
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W2 Mar 25H · Willem II4–01
- L9 Nov 24A · Groningen0–12
- L5 Oct 24A · PSV Eindhoven1–22
- L21 Jan 24H · GO Ahead Eagles0–20
- L9 Dec 23A · Ajax1–21
AZ Alkmaar7 with this referee
Record1-3-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 2
- D21 Sep 25H · Feyenoord3–34
- D11 Jan 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–22
- L29 Sep 24H · Utrecht1–21
- L4 Feb 24H · Feyenoord0–12
- L12 Nov 23A · Feyenoord0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
7
61-75
4
4
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 23 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
7
61-75
4
4
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
