Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard – 22 Nov 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Nov 22 · 20:00 Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam 11th · 16 pts · 12 played DWWLL

1–1Full time

Fortuna Sittard 10th · 16 pts · 12 played WLLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sparta Rotterdam were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Sparta Rotterdam had 14 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 14 and had to travel 141 km.

Away travel141 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 0

Sparta Rotterdam47%

Draw26%

Fortuna Sittard27%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.17

Sparta Rotterdam47%

Draw26%

Fortuna Sittard26%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.13

Sparta Rotterdam47%

Draw26%

Fortuna Sittard27%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.14

Sparta Rotterdam40%

Draw27%

Fortuna Sittard34%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.31

Sparta Rotterdam47%

Draw26%

Fortuna Sittard27%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.15

Over 2.5 53% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsErwin Blank

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.10
Matches 20

Team strength

Sparta Rotterdam

Fortuna Sittard

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

32 AttackIn forecast 19

17 DefenceIn forecast 19

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fortuna Sittard

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sparta Rotterdam

Fortuna Sittard

1.17 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.13

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.37

67% Scored inContext 83%

33% Clean sheetsContext 25%

11.92 ShotsContext 12.17

3.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.64

32% On target shareContext 35%

7.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.08

66% Box shareContext 65%

10% ConversionContext 12%

1.33 OffsidesContext 2.10

17.25 Shots allowedContext 14.33

6.91 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.58

4.67 BlocksContext 3.92

4.55 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.08

66% Save rateContext 73%

43% PossessionIn forecast 48%

365 PassesContext 382

288 Accurate passesContext 296

79% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.76

8.00 FoulsContext 13.17

9.92 Fouls sufferedContext 10.17

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.33

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.44

60% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.00 ShotsContext 10.00

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33

31% On target shareContext 39%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

67% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 15%

1.33 OffsidesContext 2.10

16.50 Shots allowedContext 15.10

6.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80

4.40 BlocksContext 4.30

4.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.30

70% Save rateContext 74%

44% PossessionIn forecast 44%

363 PassesContext 358

288 Accurate passesContext 269

79% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.75

8.50 FoulsContext 13.30

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sparta Rotterdam

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km256 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fortuna Sittard

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel141 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sparta Rotterdam	Fortuna Sittard
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Nov	14Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	141 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	256 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sparta Rotterdam Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Drommel(G)

5P. van Aanholt 4R. Martins Indi 3M. Young 2S. Bakari

8J. Kitolano 6J. Baas

11S. Mito 10L. Duijvestijn 7M. van Bergen

9T. Lauritsen

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Fortuna Sittard Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31M. Branderhorst(G)

8J. Dahlhaus 44Iván Márquez 4S. Adewoye 12Ivo Pinto

80R. Fosso 20É. Michut

18D. Limnios 23P. Brittijn 52M. Ihattaren

9K. Sierhuis

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sparta Rotterdam Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fortuna Sittard Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sparta Rotterdam-0.1 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Fortuna Sittard+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Sparta Rotterdam · Home 1.17points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-3
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 2.33

Fortuna Sittard · Away 0.50points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-5
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	Sparta Rotterdam	Fortuna Sittard
Telstar	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 A
Groningen	W 2–0 A	L 1–2 H
Twente	L 1–5 H	L 2–3 A
Excelsior	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 A
Feyenoord	L 0–4 H	L 0–2 A
GO Ahead Eagles	W 3–0 A	D 2–2 H
Utrecht	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–6 A	L 2–5 A
Points	15 of 24 · 1.88 per game	7 of 24 · 0.88 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

2 Sparta Rotterdam wins1 draws0 Fortuna Sittard wins

Goals per game2.00 – 0.33 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets67% · 0%

29 Mar 2025Fortuna Sittard0–3Sparta Rotterdam
28 Sep 2024Sparta Rotterdam1–1Fortuna Sittard
13 Jan 2024Fortuna Sittard0–2Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sparta Rotterdam	Fortuna Sittard	Forecast
Scored per game	1.17	1.50
Conceded per game	2.00	1.67
Match goals	3.17	3.17	2.79
Over 1.5	67%	75%
Over 2.5	58%	58%	53%
Over 3.5	33%	42%
Both teams scored	33%	58%	56%
Clean sheets	33%	25%
Failed to score	33%	17%
Games	12	12

	Sparta Rotterdam	Fortuna Sittard	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.50
Conceded per game	1.70	1.60
Match goals	2.80	3.10	2.79
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	20%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sparta Rotterdam	Fortuna Sittard	League
Corners
Corners won	3.92	4.27
Corners conceded	6.83	5.73
Match total	10.75	10.00	9.93
Over 8.5	92% 11/12	82% 9/11
Over 9.5	67% 8/12	55% 6/11
Over 10.5	50% 6/12	45% 5/11
Cards
Cards	1.83	2.33
Opponent cards	2.00	1.17
Match total	3.83	3.50	3.56
Over 3.5	67% 8/12	42% 5/12
Over 4.5	42% 5/12	33% 4/12

	Sparta Rotterdam	Fortuna Sittard	League
Corners
Corners won	3.70	3.78
Corners conceded	6.80	6.00
Match total	10.50	9.78	9.93
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.30
Opponent cards	2.00	0.90
Match total	4.00	3.20	3.56
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Erwin Blank Netherlands · 20 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.30league 3.32

Red cards0.05league 0.22

Cards 5+15%league 32%

Fouls22.3league 22.0

Penalties0.10league 0.29

Home wins50%league 49%

Sparta Rotterdam1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W13 Jan 24A · Fortuna Sittard2–01

Fortuna Sittard4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.3 Pens for · against2 · 0

W31 Aug 25H · NEC Nijmegen3–24
D1 Feb 25A · Heerenveen2–23
W26 Oct 24H · Groningen1–01
L13 Jan 24H · Sparta Rotterdam0–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.