Sparta Rotterdam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sparta Rotterdam
11th · 16 pts · 12 played
DWWLL
1–1Full time
Fortuna Sittard
10th · 16 pts · 12 played
WLLLW
Sparta Rotterdam47.3%fair odds 2.11
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.87
Fortuna Sittard26.9%fair odds 3.72
Expected goals1.62 – 1.17total 2.79
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Fortuna Sittard
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sparta Rotterdam ↓ · Fortuna Sittard → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sparta Rotterdam goals, columns Fortuna Sittard goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.16
- 2–19.4%10.60
- 1–09.3%10.71
- 2–08.1%12.39
- 1–26.8%14.71
- 0–06.8%14.80
- 0–16.6%15.25
- 2–25.5%18.14
- 3–15.1%19.61
- 3–04.4%22.91
Winning margin
10.5%
Sparta Rotterdam by 3+
fair 9.56
14.5%
Sparta Rotterdam by 2
fair 6.87
22.3%
Sparta Rotterdam by 1
fair 4.49
25.8%
Draw
fair 3.87
15.9%
Fortuna Sittard by 1
fair 6.30
7.6%
Fortuna Sittard by 2
fair 13.24
3.4%
Fortuna Sittard by 3+
fair 29.02
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Sparta Rotterdam goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Fortuna Sittard goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 47.3% | 47.2% | +0.1 pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 26.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 26.9% | 26.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 52.0% | +0.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.9% | 55.3% | +0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Sparta Rotterdam | 1.62 | 1.60 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Fortuna Sittard | 1.17 | 1.15 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sparta Rotterdam win47.3%2.11
- Draw25.8%3.87
- Fortuna Sittard win26.9%3.72
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or draw73.1%1.37
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or Fortuna Sittard74.2%1.35
- Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw52.7%1.90
- Draw no bet Sparta Rotterdam63.8%1.57
- Draw no bet Fortuna Sittard36.2%2.76
Goals
- Over 0.593.2%1.07
- Over 1.577.3%1.29
- Over 2.552.8%1.89
- Over 3.530.6%3.27
- Over 4.515.1%6.63
- Under 1.522.7%4.41
- Under 2.547.2%2.12
- Under 3.569.4%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes55.9%1.79
- No44.1%2.27
- Yes and over 2.543.7%2.29
- Sparta Rotterdam win and yes23.0%4.35
- Draw and yes19.1%5.24
- Fortuna Sittard win and yes13.9%7.20
Team goals
- Sparta Rotterdam over 0.580.2%1.25
- Sparta Rotterdam over 1.548.2%2.07
- Sparta Rotterdam over 2.522.2%4.50
- Fortuna Sittard over 0.568.9%1.45
- Fortuna Sittard over 1.532.6%3.07
- Fortuna Sittard over 2.511.4%8.79
- Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet31.1%3.22
- Fortuna Sittard clean sheet19.8%5.06
- Sparta Rotterdam win to nil24.3%4.11
- Fortuna Sittard win to nil13.0%7.69
Handicap
- Sparta Rotterdam −1.525.0%4.00
- Sparta Rotterdam −2.510.5%9.56
- Fortuna Sittard +1.575.0%1.33
- Fortuna Sittard +2.589.5%1.12
- Fortuna Sittard −1.511.0%9.09
- Sparta Rotterdam +1.589.0%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored111
Favourite won53.2%
Avg chance given to result42.5%
1X2 Brier0.562
Over 2.5 called right67.6%
BTTS called right60.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 19 | 38.1% | 26.3% |
| 40–50% | 37 | 44.5% | 45.9% |
| 50–60% | 28 | 55.3% | 53.6% |
| 60–70% | 15 | 64.1% | 73.3% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 75.5% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 81.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 88 of 111 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5625 | 0.5445 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.2% | 44.3% |
| Favourite won | 52.3% | 56.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 88 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 111 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.