Sparta Rotterdam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sparta Rotterdam
9th · 20 pts · 15 played
LLDLW
0–3Full time
Heerenveen
13th · 17 pts · 15 played
DLWLL
Sparta Rotterdam42.6%fair odds 2.35
Draw26.3%fair odds 3.80
Heerenveen31.1%fair odds 3.21
Expected goals1.53 – 1.27total 2.80
Likeliest score1–112.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Heerenveen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sparta Rotterdam ↓ · Heerenveen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sparta Rotterdam goals, columns Heerenveen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%8.04
- 2–19.0%11.08
- 1–08.6%11.56
- 1–27.5%13.29
- 0–17.1%14.07
- 2–07.1%14.12
- 0–06.7%14.93
- 2–25.7%17.39
- 0–24.9%20.29
- 3–14.6%21.76
Winning margin
8.5%
Sparta Rotterdam by 3+
fair 11.75
13.0%
Sparta Rotterdam by 2
fair 7.72
21.1%
Sparta Rotterdam by 1
fair 4.73
26.3%
Draw
fair 3.80
17.5%
Heerenveen by 1
fair 5.71
9.0%
Heerenveen by 2
fair 11.10
4.6%
Heerenveen by 3+
fair 21.76
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Sparta Rotterdam goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Heerenveen goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 42.6% | 42.6% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 26.3% | 26.8% | -0.5 pp |
| Heerenveen win | 31.1% | 30.7% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 51.1% | +2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.0% | 55.4% | +1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Sparta Rotterdam | 1.53 | 1.49 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Heerenveen | 1.27 | 1.23 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sparta Rotterdam win42.6%2.35
- Draw26.3%3.80
- Heerenveen win31.1%3.21
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or draw68.9%1.45
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or Heerenveen73.7%1.36
- Double chance Heerenveen or draw57.4%1.74
- Draw no bet Sparta Rotterdam57.8%1.73
- Draw no bet Heerenveen42.2%2.37
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.5%1.29
- Over 2.553.1%1.88
- Over 3.530.8%3.24
- Over 4.515.3%6.55
- Under 1.522.5%4.45
- Under 2.546.9%2.13
- Under 3.569.2%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes57.0%1.75
- No43.0%2.33
- Yes and over 2.544.6%2.24
- Sparta Rotterdam win and yes21.3%4.69
- Draw and yes19.6%5.10
- Heerenveen win and yes16.1%6.21
Team goals
- Sparta Rotterdam over 0.578.3%1.28
- Sparta Rotterdam over 1.545.1%2.22
- Sparta Rotterdam over 2.519.8%5.05
- Heerenveen over 0.572.0%1.39
- Heerenveen over 1.536.4%2.75
- Heerenveen over 2.513.7%7.30
- Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet28.0%3.58
- Heerenveen clean sheet21.7%4.61
- Sparta Rotterdam win to nil21.3%4.70
- Heerenveen win to nil15.0%6.66
Handicap
- Sparta Rotterdam −1.521.5%4.66
- Sparta Rotterdam −2.58.5%11.75
- Heerenveen +1.578.5%1.27
- Heerenveen +2.591.5%1.09
- Heerenveen −1.513.6%7.35
- Sparta Rotterdam +1.586.4%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored139
Favourite won52.5%
Avg chance given to result42.4%
1X2 Brier0.562
Over 2.5 called right65.5%
BTTS called right61.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 26 | 38.1% | 23.1% |
| 40–50% | 49 | 45.0% | 46.9% |
| 50–60% | 32 | 55.4% | 56.3% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 64.1% | 70.6% |
| 70–80% | 10 | 75.0% | 90.0% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 83.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 116 of 139 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5625 | 0.5492 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.2% | 44.1% |
| Favourite won | 51.7% | 56.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 116 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓PEC Zwolle 1–0 Fortuna Sittard46·26·28
- ✓PSV Eindhoven 4–3 Heracles86·10·4
- ✓Groningen 3–0 FC Volendam55·24·21
- ✗Telstar 2–2 NEC Nijmegen35·26·39
- ✓Sparta Rotterdam 1–0 NAC Breda50·25·25
- ✓FC Volendam 2–3 NEC Nijmegen28·26·47
- ✗AZ Alkmaar 2–2 GO Ahead Eagles58·23·19
- ✗Utrecht 1–1 Twente45·26·29
- ✓Feyenoord 6–1 PEC Zwolle67·20·13
- ✗Heracles 1–1 Telstar38·27·35
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 139 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.