Sparta Rotterdam vs Heerenveen – 14 Dec 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Dec 14 · 11:15 Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam 9th · 20 pts · 15 played LLDLW

0–3Full time

Heerenveen 13th · 17 pts · 15 played DLWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sparta Rotterdam were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Sparta Rotterdam. Sparta Rotterdam had 6.8 days of rest, Heerenveen 7.8 and had to travel 151 km.

Away travel151 kmRest days6.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Sparta Rotterdam43%

Draw26%

Heerenveen31%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.27

Sparta Rotterdam43%

Draw27%

Heerenveen30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Sparta Rotterdam43%

Draw26%

Heerenveen30%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.24

Sparta Rotterdam35%

Draw27%

Heerenveen38%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.43

Sparta Rotterdam43%

Draw27%

Heerenveen31%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.23

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens

Cards per match 3.2
Penalties per match 0.09
Matches 22

Team strength

Sparta Rotterdam

Heerenveen

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 31

32 AttackIn forecast 36

17 DefenceIn forecast 40

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Heerenveen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sparta Rotterdam

Heerenveen

1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.53

1.87 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.73

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.88

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.35

73% Scored inContext 80%

33% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.00 ShotsContext 15.33

4.07 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33

34% On target shareContext 35%

8.07 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

69% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 10%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.00

17.13 Shots allowedContext 10.20

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.47

4.40 BlocksContext 2.70

4.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

67% Save rateContext 60%

45% PossessionIn forecast 52%

373 PassesContext 423

295 Accurate passesContext 338

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.82

8.40 FoulsContext 11.53

9.93 Fouls sufferedContext 11.07

1.73 Yellow cardsContext 1.53

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.92

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

70% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.80 ShotsContext 14.80

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

32% On target shareContext 41%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.67

69% Box shareContext 63%

9% ConversionContext 12%

1.71 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.50 Shots allowedContext 11.10

6.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.60 BlocksContext 2.75

4.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

68% Save rateContext 57%

47% PossessionIn forecast 51%

390 PassesContext 417

313 Accurate passesContext 334

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.80

9.40 FoulsContext 12.00

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sparta Rotterdam

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Heerenveen

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel151 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sparta Rotterdam	Heerenveen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Dec	7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sparta Rotterdam Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Drommel(G)

5M. Kleijn 4T. Quintero 3M. Young 2S. Sambo

8J. Kitolano 6J. Baas

11S. Mito 10A. Santos 7M. van Bergen

9T. Lauritsen

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Heerenveen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude

6J. van Overeem 16M. Linday

10R. Meerveld 20J. Trenskow 50Eser Gürbüz

9D. Vente

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sparta Rotterdam Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Heerenveen Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sparta Rotterdam-0.8 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Heerenveen+0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Sparta Rotterdam · Home 1.38points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-3
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 1.88

Heerenveen · Away 0.71points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-4
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 1.71

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Sparta Rotterdam	Heerenveen
NAC Breda	W 1–0 H	D 3–3 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–3 A	W 3–2 H
Fortuna Sittard	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
PEC Zwolle	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 H	W 3–1 H
Telstar	W 1–0 H	W 3–2 A
Groningen	W 2–0 A	L 1–2 A
Ajax	D 3–3 H	D 1–1 A
Twente	L 1–5 H	L 1–2 H
Excelsior	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 H
Feyenoord	L 0–4 H	L 0–1 A
GO Ahead Eagles	W 3–0 A	D 2–2 H
Utrecht	W 2–1 H	D 2–2 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–6 A	L 0–2 H
Points	20 of 42 · 1.43 per game	16 of 42 · 1.14 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

2 Sparta Rotterdam wins0 draws1 Heerenveen wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.33 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

12 Apr 2025Sparta Rotterdam3–1Heerenveen
26 Oct 2024Heerenveen2–0Sparta Rotterdam
27 Aug 2023Heerenveen1–3Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sparta Rotterdam	Heerenveen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.13	1.53
Conceded per game	1.87	1.73
Match goals	3.00	3.27	2.80
Over 1.5	67%	93%
Over 2.5	53%	67%	53%
Over 3.5	33%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	80%	57%
Clean sheets	33%	0%
Failed to score	27%	20%
Games	15	15

	Sparta Rotterdam	Heerenveen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.80
Conceded per game	1.70	1.80
Match goals	2.70	3.60	2.80
Over 1.5	60%	100%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	53%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	80%	57%
Clean sheets	30%	0%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sparta Rotterdam	Heerenveen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.07	6.13
Corners conceded	7.13	4.47
Match total	11.20	10.60	10.16
Over 8.5	93% 14/15	87% 13/15
Over 9.5	73% 11/15	60% 9/15
Over 10.5	60% 9/15	47% 7/15
Cards
Cards	1.87	1.67
Opponent cards	1.87	1.73
Match total	3.74	3.40	3.61
Over 3.5	60% 9/15	47% 7/15
Over 4.5	40% 6/15	27% 4/15

	Sparta Rotterdam	Heerenveen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	6.20
Corners conceded	6.50	4.50
Match total	11.20	10.70	10.16
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.40
Opponent cards	1.80	1.30
Match total	3.90	2.70	3.61
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 22 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.00league 3.37

Red cards0.23league 0.22

Cards 5+27%league 33%

Fouls21.8league 21.9

Penalties0.09league 0.31

Home wins45%league 48%

Sparta Rotterdam4 with this referee

Record3-1-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W19 Oct 25A · Groningen2–02
W23 Aug 25A · GO Ahead Eagles3–02
W6 Apr 25H · NEC Nijmegen2–00
D28 Sep 24H · Fortuna Sittard1–11

Heerenveen5 with this referee

Record3-0-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

L13 Sep 25A · Feyenoord0–12
L14 May 25A · GO Ahead Eagles0–10
W19 Apr 25H · Almere City FC2–11
W8 Dec 24A · Willem II2–12
W31 Aug 24H · NAC Breda4–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.