Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 11). Sporting CP usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Sporting CP had 8 days of rest, AVS 7.1 and had to travel.
Rest days8 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Sporting CP89%
Draw9%
AVS3%
Sporting CP89%
Draw8%
AVS3%
Sporting CP89%
Draw9%
AVS3%
Sporting CP84%
Draw11%
AVS4%
Sporting CP89%
Draw8%
AVS3%
Over 2.5 72%
Both score 38%
Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalVasilica Iancu
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 2
Team strength
Sporting CP
AVS
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
11
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
75
AttackIn forecast
17
81
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPAVS
2.46
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.69
0.54
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.38
2.19
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
0.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
100%
Scored inContext
54%
54%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
18.69
ShotsContext
9.54
6.92
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.85
37%
On target shareContext
30%
12.38
Shots in the boxContext
6.08
66%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.17
7.38
Shots allowedContext
13.31
2.58
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.92
2.00
BlocksContext
3.23
2.18
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
80%
Save rateContext
53%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
537
PassesContext
330
469
Accurate passesContext
256
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.58
12.31
FoulsContext
15.15
13.54
Fouls sufferedContext
12.62
2.23
Yellow cardsContext
2.08
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.51
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
100%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.10
ShotsContext
9.60
6.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
37%
On target shareContext
32%
10.78
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
64%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
6%
1.25
OffsidesContext
2.50
10.50
Shots allowedContext
13.30
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.30
BlocksContext
3.30
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
81%
Save rateContext
54%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
518
PassesContext
341
454
Accurate passesContext
268
88%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.57
12.00
FoulsContext
15.00
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AVS
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
AVS |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 5 Dec | 7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
91Ricardo Mangas
25G. Inácio
26O. Diomande
13G. Vagiannidis
5H. Morita
14G. Kochorashvili
20M. Araújo
17Trincão
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
AVS
Confirmed XI
99João Gonçalves(G)
24Kiki
42C. Devenish
35Rúben Semedo
26Carlos Ponck
21G. Neiva
14Ó. Perea
6Gustavo Assunção
8Pedro Lima
27Ángel Algobia
7Tómané
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AVS+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 2.83
- Conceded
- 0.50
AVS · Away
0.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-5
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| Benfica | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Estrela | W 4–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Alverca | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 H |
| Tondela | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| SC Braga | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Estoril | W 1–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Famalicao | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Arouca | W 6–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 26 of 30 · 2.60 per game | 2 of 30 · 0.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Sporting CP wins1 draws0 AVS wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 23 Feb 2025AVS2–2Sporting CP
- 22 Sep 2024Sporting CP3–0AVS
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.46 | 0.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.54 | 2.38 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.08 | 3.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 69% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 46% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 54% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 54% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 46% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Sporting CP | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.00 | 3.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.45 | 3.73 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.91 | 5.82 | |
| Match total | 9.36 | 9.55 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 7/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 6/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 2.23 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.15 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.46 | 5.23 | 5.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 9/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 62% 8/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Sporting CP | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.43 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 7.43 | 9.11 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 5.30 | 5.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Vasilica Iancu Portugal · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 5.20
Red cards1.00league 0.29
Cards 5+50%league 64%
Fouls22.5league 27.6
Penalties0.50league 0.46
Home wins0%league 34%
Sporting CPNo previous matches with this referee.
AVSNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP13 games · scored 32 · conceded 7
4
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
31-45
4
46-60
6
2
61-75
9
1
76-90
AVS13 games · scored 9 · conceded 31
1
5
0-15
1
6
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
6
61-75
3
4
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 20 · conceded 8
4
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 6 · conceded 24
1
4
0-15
5
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
