Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Famalicao. Sporting CP had 6 days of rest, Famalicao 6.1 and had to travel 303 km.
Away travel303 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sporting CP73%
Draw18%
Famalicao9%
Sporting CP76%
Draw16%
Famalicao8%
Sporting CP73%
Draw18%
Famalicao9%
Sporting CP66%
Draw22%
Famalicao12%
Sporting CP73%
Draw18%
Famalicao9%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva
- Cards per match 6.9
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 11
Team strength
Sporting CP
Famalicao
84
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
75
AttackIn forecast
24
81
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFamalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPFamalicao
2.62
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
0.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.95
2.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
0.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
100%
Scored inContext
71%
48%
Clean sheetsContext
48%
17.86
ShotsContext
12.00
6.81
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.32
38%
On target shareContext
33%
11.95
Shots in the boxContext
8.15
67%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.62
8.24
Shots allowedContext
10.52
3.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.60
BlocksContext
2.60
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
81%
Save rateContext
77%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
525
PassesContext
387
460
Accurate passesContext
316
88%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.91
12.29
FoulsContext
16.67
13.14
Fouls sufferedContext
16.14
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.52
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.05
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+1.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
100%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.90
ShotsContext
11.00
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
41%
On target shareContext
39%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.89
68%
Box shareContext
57%
19%
ConversionContext
15%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.00
11.40
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
4.44
BlocksContext
2.60
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
82%
Save rateContext
68%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
487
PassesContext
413
425
Accurate passesContext
344
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.40
FoulsContext
14.50
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
16.40
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km547 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Famalicao
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel303 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Famalicao |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Feb | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 303 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 547 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
91Ricardo Mangas
25G. Inácio
26O. Diomande
22Iván Fresneda
5H. Morita
42M. Hjulmand
20M. Araújo
17Trincão
31Luis Guilherme
8Pote
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
28Pedro Bondo
16J. de Haas
55I. Ba
2Gustavo Garcia
6T. van de Looi
7Sorriso
20Gustavo Sá
80Pedro Santos
23Gil Dias
12S. Elisor
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
2.50points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-1
- Scored
- 3.20
- Conceded
- 0.40
Famalicao · Away
1.50points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-3
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Nacional | W 2–1 HW 4–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Arouca | W 2–1 AW 6–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Casa Pia | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 A | L 0–5 AD 0–0 H |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Guimaraes | W 4–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| AVS | W 6–0 H | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Benfica | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Estrela | W 4–0 H | L 2–3 H |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Alverca | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Tondela | W 3–0 A | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A |
| SC Braga | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Estoril | W 1–0 A | W 4–0 H |
| Moreirense | W 3–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 49 of 60 · 2.45 per game | 32 of 60 · 1.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
7 Sporting CP wins0 draws0 Famalicao wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.57
Over 2.571%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets43% · 0%
- 13 Sep 2025Famalicao1–2Sporting CP
- 15 Mar 2025Sporting CP3–1Famalicao
- 26 Oct 2024Famalicao0–3Sporting CP
- 16 Apr 2024Famalicao0–1Sporting CP
- 27 Aug 2023Sporting CP1–0Famalicao
- 30 Apr 2023Sporting CP2–1Famalicao
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.62 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.57 | 0.95 | |
| Match goals | 3.19 | 2.24 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 95% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 43% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 33% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 48% | 48% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 29% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Sporting CP | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.06 | 4.76 | |
| Match total | 9.56 | 9.62 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 72% 13/18 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 9/18 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 5/18 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.48 | 2.62 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 5.48 | 4.76 | 5.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 13/21 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 12/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Sporting CP | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 9.00 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 4.10 | 5.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · David Rafael Oliveira da Silva Portugal · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.55league 4.93
Red cards0.36league 0.28
Cards 5+91%league 59%
Fouls28.6league 26.9
Penalties0.36league 0.44
Home wins45%league 41%
Sporting CP1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W16 Jan 26H · Casa Pia3–00
Famalicao1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D29 Nov 25A · Moreirense2–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP21 games · scored 55 · conceded 12
4
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
14
31-45
8
2
46-60
9
2
61-75
15
4
76-90
Famalicao21 games · scored 27 · conceded 20
3
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
5
5
46-60
6
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 28 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
10
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
61-75
8
4
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
