Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 25). Sporting CP had 5 days of rest, Rio Ave 8.1 and had to travel 294 km.
Away travel294 kmRest days5 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sporting CP80%
Draw14%
Rio Ave6%
Sporting CP80%
Draw14%
Rio Ave6%
Sporting CP80%
Draw14%
Rio Ave6%
Sporting CP74%
Draw17%
Rio Ave9%
Sporting CP80%
Draw14%
Rio Ave6%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalCarlos Macedo
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 32
Team strength
Sporting CP
Rio Ave
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
75
AttackIn forecast
18
81
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPRio Ave
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
0.53
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
2.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
0.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
100%
Scored inContext
73%
53%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
18.93
ShotsContext
9.07
7.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.07
39%
On target shareContext
42%
12.47
Shots in the boxContext
6.08
66%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
14%
1.91
OffsidesContext
2.50
7.93
Shots allowedContext
16.27
2.79
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.13
BlocksContext
4.67
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
82%
Save rateContext
69%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
528
PassesContext
367
461
Accurate passesContext
304
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.13
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.33
FoulsContext
13.93
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.87
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.92
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
100%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.70
ShotsContext
7.70
7.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.78
41%
On target shareContext
44%
11.78
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
63%
Box shareContext
67%
16%
ConversionContext
16%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.40
10.90
Shots allowedContext
16.50
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.50
BlocksContext
5.40
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
84%
Save rateContext
73%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
525
PassesContext
359
464
Accurate passesContext
296
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.60
FoulsContext
14.40
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
15.10
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
3.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km622 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rio Ave
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel294 km45 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Rio Ave |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Dec | 8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 294 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 622 km | 45 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
91Ricardo Mangas
25G. Inácio
72Eduardo Quaresma
13G. Vagiannidis
20M. Araújo
52João Simões
42M. Hjulmand
17Trincão
97L. Suárez
89F. Ioannidis
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
1C. Miszta(G)
6N. Abbey
32J. Brabec
23F. Petrasso
3N. Athanasiou
54G. Liavas
5A. Ntoi
20João Tomé
18D. Špikić
14K. Zoabi
80O. Pohlmann
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
2.29points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-1
- Scored
- 3.29
- Conceded
- 0.43
Rio Ave · Away
1.38points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | W 4–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| AVS | W 6–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Benfica | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Estrela | W 4–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Alverca | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Tondela | W 3–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| SC Braga | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Estoril | W 1–0 A | L 0–4 H |
| Moreirense | W 3–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Famalicao | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| FC Porto | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 H |
| Nacional | W 4–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Arouca | W 6–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 35 of 42 · 2.50 per game | 16 of 42 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
5 Sporting CP wins1 draws0 Rio Ave wins
Goals per game2.50 – 0.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 18 Jan 2025Rio Ave0–3Sporting CP
- 9 Aug 2024Sporting CP3–1Rio Ave
- 25 Feb 2024Rio Ave3–3Sporting CP
- 25 Sep 2023Sporting CP2–0Rio Ave
- 6 Feb 2023Rio Ave0–1Sporting CP
- 13 Aug 2022Sporting CP3–0Rio Ave
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.80 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.53 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.87 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 60% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 67% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 53% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 27% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Sporting CP | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.40 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.46 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.69 | 7.07 | |
| Match total | 9.15 | 10.93 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 8/13 | 79% 11/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 3/13 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 3.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.13 | 2.93 | |
| Match total | 5.53 | 6.00 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 10/15 | 80% 12/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 9/15 | 73% 11/15 | |
| Sporting CP | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.71 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.57 | 7.33 | |
| Match total | 8.28 | 11.89 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 3.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 7.00 | 5.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Carlos Macedo Portugal · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.41league 5.16
Red cards0.22league 0.30
Cards 5+47%league 63%
Fouls29.5league 27.4
Penalties0.34league 0.44
Home wins50%league 36%
Sporting CPNo previous matches with this referee.
Rio Ave8 with this referee
Record3-2-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 3.1
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 Mar 25A · Famalicao0–12
- W30 Nov 24H · Moreirense3–23
- W17 Aug 24H · Farense1–00
- W11 Feb 24H · Casa Pia1–01
- L1 Oct 23H · Moreirense0–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP15 games · scored 42 · conceded 8
4
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
9
31-45
6
1
46-60
7
2
61-75
11
1
76-90
Rio Ave15 games · scored 19 · conceded 24
2
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
5
61-75
4
6
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 27 · conceded 7
4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
7
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
