Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Santa Clara. Sporting CP had 12.1 days of rest, Santa Clara 13.1 and had to travel 1,445 km.
Away travel1,445 kmRest days12.1 · 13.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sporting CP77%
Draw16%
Santa Clara7%
Sporting CP82%
Draw13%
Santa Clara6%
Sporting CP77%
Draw16%
Santa Clara7%
Sporting CP71%
Draw19%
Santa Clara10%
Sporting CP77%
Draw16%
Santa Clara7%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 40%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalAndre Filipe Domingues Narciso
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 8
Team strength
Sporting CP
Santa Clara
83
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
75
AttackIn forecast
29
81
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSanta Clara
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPSanta Clara
2.62
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.89
0.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.15
2.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
0.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.60
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
100%
Scored inContext
63%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
17.46
ShotsContext
11.37
6.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
39%
On target shareContext
28%
11.69
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
67%
Box shareContext
54%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.25
8.00
Shots allowedContext
9.22
2.96
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.52
BlocksContext
2.50
2.55
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.68
81%
Save rateContext
69%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
529
PassesContext
365
464
Accurate passesContext
294
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.08
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.27
FoulsContext
14.85
13.58
Fouls sufferedContext
14.26
2.31
Yellow cardsContext
2.78
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.83
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.60
ShotsContext
11.30
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
38%
On target shareContext
23%
10.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
71%
Box shareContext
48%
15%
ConversionContext
9%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.43
7.60
Shots allowedContext
8.70
2.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.57
BlocksContext
3.00
2.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.14
71%
Save rateContext
60%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
554
PassesContext
363
485
Accurate passesContext
291
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.74
11.80
FoulsContext
16.30
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
Rest12.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km43 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Santa Clara
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,445 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Santa Clara |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 13.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,445 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 43 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
91Ricardo Mangas
6Z. Debast
72Eduardo Quaresma
13G. Vagiannidis
5H. Morita
23Daniel Bragança
8Pote
17Trincão
10Geny Catamo
90Rafael Nel
Santa Clara
Confirmed XI
1Gabriel Batista(G)
5Guilherme Romão
94Henrique Silva
23Sidney Lima
42Lucas Soares
49Welinton
35Serginho
8Pedro Ferreira
10Gabriel Silva
26Fernando
77Gustavo Klismahn
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Santa Clara
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
2.58points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-1-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
Santa Clara · Away
0.85points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-6
- Scored
- 0.85
- Conceded
- 1.31
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Estoril | W 3–0 HW 1–0 A | L 2–4 HW 1–0 A |
| Moreirense | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| FC Porto | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Nacional | W 2–1 HW 4–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| Arouca | W 2–1 AW 6–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Casa Pia | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Guimaraes | W 4–1 A | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| AVS | W 6–0 H | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Benfica | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Estrela | W 4–0 H | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Tondela | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Points | 62 of 75 · 2.48 per game | 28 of 78 · 1.08 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
4 Sporting CP wins0 draws1 Santa Clara wins
Goals per game1.60 – 0.60
Over 2.560%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 8 Nov 2025Santa Clara1–2Sporting CP
- 12 Apr 2025Santa Clara0–1Sporting CP
- 30 Nov 2024Sporting CP0–1Santa Clara
- 1 Apr 2023Sporting CP3–0Santa Clara
- 8 Oct 2022Santa Clara1–2Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.62 | 0.89 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.58 | 1.15 | |
| Match goals | 3.19 | 2.04 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 52% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 33% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 41% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 37% | |
| Games | 26 | 27 |
| Sporting CP | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.20 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 30% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.48 | 4.39 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.87 | 4.61 | |
| Match total | 9.35 | 9.00 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 16/23 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 11/23 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 7/23 | 30% 7/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.42 | 2.93 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.81 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 5.23 | 5.82 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 16/26 | 81% 22/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 15/26 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Sporting CP | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.56 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.67 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 10.23 | 8.90 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.80 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso Portugal · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.13league 4.79
Red cards0.13league 0.26
Cards 5+38%league 57%
Fouls30.8league 27.0
Penalties0.38league 0.44
Home wins75%league 41%
Sporting CPNo previous matches with this referee.
Santa ClaraNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP26 games · scored 68 · conceded 15
5
2
0-15
8
2
16-30
15
1
31-45
11
2
46-60
11
2
61-75
18
6
76-90
Santa Clara27 games · scored 24 · conceded 31
9
5
0-15
5
16-30
1
6
31-45
3
6
46-60
3
5
61-75
8
4
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 24 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
9
4
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
