Sporting CP
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sporting CP77.2%fair odds 1.30
Draw16.0%fair odds 6.24
Santa Clara6.8%fair odds 14.70
Expected goals2.37 – 0.57total 2.94
Likeliest score2–014.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Santa Clara
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sporting CP ↓ · Santa Clara → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.8 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.7 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sporting CP goals, columns Santa Clara goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–014.8%6.74
- 1–012.2%8.23
- 3–011.7%8.55
- 2–18.5%11.80
- 1–17.5%13.26
- 4–06.9%14.44
- 3–16.7%14.95
- 0–05.7%17.62
- 4–14.0%25.27
- 5–03.3%30.51
Winning margin
31.6%
Sporting CP by 3+
fair 3.16
22.8%
Sporting CP by 2
fair 4.39
22.8%
Sporting CP by 1
fair 4.39
16.0%
Draw
fair 6.24
5.2%
Santa Clara by 1
fair 19.19
1.3%
Santa Clara by 2
fair 75.33
0.3%
Santa Clara by 3+
fair 380.09
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Sporting CP goals
9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
21%4+
Santa Clara goals
56%0
32%1
9%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP win | 77.2% | 77.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 16.0% | 15.8% | +0.2 pp |
| Santa Clara win | 6.8% | 6.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 57.7% | -1.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 39.8% | 41.0% | -1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Sporting CP | 2.37 | 2.41 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Santa Clara | 0.57 | 0.59 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sporting CP win77.2%1.30
- Draw16.0%6.24
- Santa Clara win6.8%14.70
- Double chance Sporting CP or draw93.2%1.07
- Double chance Sporting CP or Santa Clara84.0%1.19
- Double chance Santa Clara or draw22.8%4.38
- Draw no bet Sporting CP91.9%1.09
- Draw no bet Santa Clara8.1%12.34
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.579.5%1.26
- Over 2.556.3%1.78
- Over 3.533.9%2.95
- Over 4.517.4%5.73
- Under 1.520.5%4.88
- Under 2.543.7%2.29
- Under 3.566.1%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes39.8%2.51
- No60.2%1.66
- Yes and over 2.532.3%3.10
- Sporting CP win and yes26.4%3.79
- Draw and yes10.4%9.65
- Santa Clara win and yes3.1%32.27
Team goals
- Sporting CP over 0.590.6%1.10
- Sporting CP over 1.568.4%1.46
- Sporting CP over 2.542.2%2.37
- Santa Clara over 0.543.5%2.30
- Santa Clara over 1.511.3%8.88
- Santa Clara over 2.52.0%49.01
- Sporting CP clean sheet56.5%1.77
- Santa Clara clean sheet9.4%10.66
- Sporting CP win to nil50.8%1.97
- Santa Clara win to nil3.7%27.00
Handicap
- Sporting CP −1.554.4%1.84
- Sporting CP −2.531.6%3.16
- Santa Clara +1.545.6%2.19
- Santa Clara +2.568.4%1.46
- Santa Clara −1.51.6%62.87
- Sporting CP +1.598.4%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored243
Favourite won58.8%
Avg chance given to result44.3%
1X2 Brier0.533
Over 2.5 called right57.6%
BTTS called right54.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 48 | 37.7% | 41.7% |
| 40–50% | 79 | 44.7% | 46.8% |
| 50–60% | 48 | 54.5% | 58.3% |
| 60–70% | 33 | 65.1% | 84.8% |
| 70–80% | 27 | 75.2% | 81.5% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 84.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 191 of 243 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5145 | 0.5016 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.4% | 47.2% |
| Favourite won | 62.8% | 61.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 191 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Guimaraes 5–0 Tondela53·27·20
- ✓GIL Vicente 3–0 AVS64·23·13
- ✓SC Braga 1–2 FC Porto33·29·38
- ✓Alverca 1–4 Sporting CP13·22·64
- ✗Estoril 1–2 Rio Ave48·28·24
- ✗Tondela 0–0 AVS50·30·21
- ✗Santa Clara 1–0 GIL Vicente33·29·38
- ✓Benfica 3–0 Guimaraes74·16·9
- ✓Famalicao 1–0 Nacional53·27·20
- ✗Moreirense 0–1 Arouca37·28·35
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 243 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.