St. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
St. Truiden
2nd · 45 pts · 22 played
LWWWW
First leg1–1
0–2Full time
Charleroi
8th · 30 pts · 22 played
DDWWW
Our take
St. Truiden were slight favourites.
St. Truiden were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Charleroi. St. Truiden had 7.2 days of rest, Charleroi 6.3 and had to travel.
Rest days7.2 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
St. Truiden50%
Draw26%
Charleroi24%
St. Truiden52%
Draw25%
Charleroi23%
St. Truiden50%
Draw26%
Charleroi24%
St. Truiden43%
Draw27%
Charleroi30%
St. Truiden50%
Draw26%
Charleroi24%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.08
- Matches 13
Team strength
St. TruidenCharleroi
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
35
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
37
AttackIn forecast
43
32
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
St. TruidenCharleroi
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.23
1.09
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.18
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
86%
Scored inContext
77%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
14.00
ShotsContext
11.00
4.45
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.19
32%
On target shareContext
36%
9.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
66%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.84
OffsidesContext
2.58
11.45
Shots allowedContext
11.50
4.05
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.62
3.30
BlocksContext
3.38
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
74%
Save rateContext
74%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
444
PassesContext
359
367
Accurate passesContext
285
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.05
FoulsContext
11.55
10.86
Fouls sufferedContext
11.14
1.91
Yellow cardsContext
1.95
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
100%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.90
ShotsContext
12.50
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
35%
On target shareContext
33%
9.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
62%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.67
OffsidesContext
3.13
11.70
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.38
BlocksContext
2.60
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
78%
Save rateContext
80%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
477
PassesContext
356
403
Accurate passesContext
285
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.10
FoulsContext
11.70
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
St. Truiden
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Charleroi
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—180 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| St. Truiden |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 6.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 180 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
26V. Musliu
5S. Taniguchi
60R. Vanwesemael
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
13R. Ito
7A. Muja
42Keisuke Goto
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
14P. Pflücke
17A. Bernier
21A. Scheidler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
St. Truiden · Home
2.27points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-2
- Scored
- 1.55
- Conceded
- 1.00
Charleroi · Away
1.18points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-6
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.45
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | St. Truiden | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| OH Leuven | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Standard Liege | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 HL 1–3 A |
| KV Mechelen | W 1–0 HW 3–1 A | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Anderlecht | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Gent | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Antwerp | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Genk | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–3 H | W 2–0 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 2–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Dender | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 44 of 63 · 2.10 per game | 29 of 63 · 1.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 St. Truiden wins2 draws0 Charleroi wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.67
Over 2.50%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 3 Aug 2025Charleroi1–1St. Truiden
- 23 Dec 2023St. Truiden1–0Charleroi
- 3 Sep 2023Charleroi1–1St. Truiden
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| St. Truiden | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.23 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.09 | 1.18 | |
| Match goals | 2.59 | 2.41 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 41% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 55% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 23% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| St. Truiden | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.10 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| St. Truiden | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.38 | 4.77 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.91 | |
| Match total | 9.71 | 9.68 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 14/21 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 13/21 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 9/21 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.95 | 2.05 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 1.59 | |
| Match total | 4.22 | 3.64 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 13/22 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 27% 6/22 | 32% 7/22 | |
| St. Truiden | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 11.10 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 3.40 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.77league 3.80
Red cards0.00league 0.18
Cards 5+15%league 40%
Fouls21.7league 22.9
Penalties0.08league 0.28
Home wins46%league 40%
St. Truiden2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W23 Nov 25A · OH Leuven2–12
- W17 Aug 25H · RAAL La Louvière2–11
Charleroi1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W8 Nov 25H · KVC Westerlo2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
St. Truiden22 games · scored 33 · conceded 24
3
1
0-15
7
5
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
6
61-75
10
3
76-90
Charleroi22 games · scored 27 · conceded 26
7
5
0-15
3
5
16-30
7
3
31-45
3
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
6
3
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
4
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
