St. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
St. Truiden were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. St. Truiden had 5.1 days of rest, Dender 6.1 and had to travel.
Rest days5.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
St. Truiden42%
Draw27%
Dender31%
St. Truiden42%
Draw27%
Dender31%
St. Truiden43%
Draw27%
Dender31%
St. Truiden35%
Draw27%
Dender38%
St. Truiden42%
Draw27%
Dender31%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)
No weather data yet
RefereeMassimiliano Ledda
Team strength
St. Truiden
Dender
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
35
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
37
AttackIn forecast
15
32
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
St. TruidenDender
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.63
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
100%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.00
ShotsContext
10.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
32%
On target shareContext
25%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
75%
Box shareContext
79%
14%
ConversionContext
5%
—
OffsidesContext
—
8.00
Shots allowedContext
10.00
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
5.00
BlocksContext
1.50
1.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
50%
Save rateContext
88%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
413
PassesContext
449
335
Accurate passesContext
345
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.88
13.50
FoulsContext
13.00
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
80%
Scored inContext
—
20%
Clean sheetsContext
—
13.30
ShotsContext
—
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
32%
On target shareContext
—
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
—
61%
Box shareContext
—
11%
ConversionContext
—
1.71
OffsidesContext
—
12.00
Shots allowedContext
—
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
3.90
BlocksContext
—
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
64%
Save rateContext
—
58%
PossessionIn forecast
—
545
PassesContext
—
465
Accurate passesContext
—
85%
Pass accuracyContext
—
6.97
Team ratingContext
—
10.40
FoulsContext
—
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
—
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
—
0.00
Red cardsContext
—
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
St. Truiden
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Dender
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—217 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| St. Truiden |
Dender |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 3 Aug | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 2 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 217 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.8 | 8.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
26V. Musliu
20R. Van Helden
19L. Patris
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
13R. Ito
60R. Vanwesemael
9A. Ferrari
Dender
Confirmed XI
34M. Verrips(G)
3J. Pupe
44L. De Fougerolles
5L. Marijnissen
88F. Ferraro
17N. Mbamba
24M. Viltard
18N. Rôdes
22B. Fredrick
11A. Scheidler
16R. Květ
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences St. Truiden
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Dender
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- St. Truiden-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Dender+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
St. Truiden · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Dender · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| St. Truiden | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.00 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| St. Truiden | Dender | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.00 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 0% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| St. Truiden | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 6.00 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| St. Truiden | Dender | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 6.00 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 1/2 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
St. Truiden2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
3
1
76-90
Dender2 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
7
2
76-90
Dender2 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
