Stade Brestois 29
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Stade Brestois 29
12th · 23 pts · 20 played
LWLLD
2–0Full time
Lorient
9th · 28 pts · 20 played
DDWWW
Stade Brestois 2946.1%fair odds 2.17
Draw27.3%fair odds 3.66
Lorient26.6%fair odds 3.76
Expected goals1.48 – 1.07total 2.55
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lorient
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Stade Brestois 29 ↓ · Lorient → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Stade Brestois 29 goals, columns Lorient goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.68
- 1–010.9%9.13
- 2–19.2%10.92
- 2–08.6%11.64
- 0–08.5%11.78
- 0–17.7%13.00
- 1–26.6%15.18
- 2–24.9%20.50
- 3–14.5%22.12
- 0–24.4%22.49
Winning margin
9.1%
Stade Brestois 29 by 3+
fair 10.96
14.1%
Stade Brestois 29 by 2
fair 7.09
22.9%
Stade Brestois 29 by 1
fair 4.37
27.3%
Draw
fair 3.66
16.3%
Lorient by 1
fair 6.15
7.3%
Lorient by 2
fair 13.70
3.0%
Lorient by 3+
fair 33.10
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Stade Brestois 29 goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Lorient goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 46.1% | 46.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 27.3% | 26.6% | +0.8 pp |
| Lorient win | 26.6% | 26.8% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.8% | 49.8% | -3.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.3% | 53.6% | -2.3 pp |
| Expected goals Stade Brestois 29 | 1.48 | 1.55 | -0.07 |
| Expected goals Lorient | 1.07 | 1.12 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Stade Brestois 29 win46.1%2.17
- Draw27.3%3.66
- Lorient win26.6%3.76
- Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or draw73.4%1.36
- Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or Lorient72.7%1.38
- Double chance Lorient or draw53.9%1.85
- Draw no bet Stade Brestois 2963.4%1.58
- Draw no bet Lorient36.6%2.73
Goals
- Over 0.591.5%1.09
- Over 1.572.9%1.37
- Over 2.546.8%2.14
- Over 3.525.2%3.96
- Over 4.511.5%8.69
- Under 1.527.1%3.69
- Under 2.553.2%1.88
- Under 3.574.8%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes51.3%1.95
- No48.7%2.05
- Yes and over 2.538.3%2.61
- Stade Brestois 29 win and yes20.1%4.97
- Draw and yes18.8%5.31
- Lorient win and yes12.3%8.11
Team goals
- Stade Brestois 29 over 0.577.3%1.29
- Stade Brestois 29 over 1.543.6%2.29
- Stade Brestois 29 over 2.518.6%5.36
- Lorient over 0.565.5%1.53
- Lorient over 1.528.8%3.47
- Lorient over 2.59.3%10.79
- Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet34.5%2.90
- Lorient clean sheet22.7%4.40
- Stade Brestois 29 win to nil26.0%3.85
- Lorient win to nil14.2%7.02
Handicap
- Stade Brestois 29 −1.523.2%4.30
- Stade Brestois 29 −2.59.1%10.96
- Lorient +1.576.8%1.30
- Lorient +2.590.9%1.10
- Lorient −1.510.3%9.69
- Stade Brestois 29 +1.589.7%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored182
Favourite won55.5%
Avg chance given to result42.8%
1X2 Brier0.566
Over 2.5 called right52.2%
BTTS called right52.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 27 | 38.1% | 44.4% |
| 40–50% | 53 | 44.8% | 49.1% |
| 50–60% | 50 | 54.2% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 29 | 64.6% | 69.0% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 74.8% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 86.4% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 154 of 182 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5900 | 0.5783 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.7% | 41.6% |
| Favourite won | 51.3% | 53.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 154 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Lens 3–1 Rennes57·24·19
- ✗Metz 0–0 Lille19·24·58
- ✓Strasbourg 1–2 Paris Saint Germain19·21·59
- ✗Toulouse 0–0 Auxerre57·24·19
- ✗Nice 2–2 Stade Brestois 2936·27·37
- ✓Angers 1–0 Metz50·26·24
- ✓Lyon 1–0 Lille55·23·22
- ✓Monaco 4–0 Rennes46·27·27
- ✓Lorient 2–1 Nantes55·24·21
- ✗Paris FC 2–2 Marseille17·22·61
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 182 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.