Stade Brestois 29 vs Lorient – 7 Feb 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 21 Sat, Feb 7 · 18:00 Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest

Stade Brestois 29 12th · 23 pts · 20 played LWLLD

2–0Full time

Lorient 9th · 28 pts · 20 played DDWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Stade Brestois 29 were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Stade Brestois 29 had 6.1 days of rest, Lorient 7 and had to travel 109 km.

Away travel109 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1

Stade Brestois 2946%

Draw27%

Lorient27%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.07

Stade Brestois 2947%

Draw26%

Lorient27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.14

Stade Brestois 2946%

Draw28%

Lorient27%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.05

Stade Brestois 2939%

Draw28%

Lorient33%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.19

Stade Brestois 2947%

Draw27%

Lorient27%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.12

Over 2.5 47% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brest)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceGael Angoula

Cards per match 3.2
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 29

Team strength

Stade Brestois 29

Lorient

37 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

47 AttackIn forecast 28

36 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Stade Brestois 29

Lorient

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.35

1.65 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.55

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

65% Scored inContext 70%

25% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.60 ShotsContext 11.20

3.85 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75

33% On target shareContext 34%

7.25 Shots in the boxContext 7.35

64% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 12%

1.69 OffsidesContext 2.36

11.95 Shots allowedContext 10.25

4.68 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.95

3.42 BlocksContext 2.83

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.82

64% Save rateContext 65%

44% PossessionIn forecast 43%

376 PassesContext 401

298 Accurate passesContext 338

79% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.80

13.55 FoulsContext 10.00

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 14.40

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.85

0.15 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.95

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

70% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.70 ShotsContext 10.80

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

36% On target shareContext 34%

6.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

60% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 13%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.75

11.20 Shots allowedContext 10.30

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

2.80 BlocksContext 2.80

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

65% Save rateContext 73%

44% PossessionIn forecast 42%

380 PassesContext 389

303 Accurate passesContext 327

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.94

15.10 FoulsContext 9.10

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Stade Brestois 29

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,089 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lorient

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel109 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Stade Brestois 29	Lorient
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Feb	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 31 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	109 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,089 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30G. Coudert(G)

27D. Guindo 4M. Diaz 5B. Chardonnet 77K. Lala

8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard

14R. Labeau-Lascary 23K. Doumbia 10R. Del Castillo

19L. Ajorque

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

38Y. Mvogo(G)

32N. Adjei 3M. Talbi 5B. Meïté

43Arsène Kouassi 6L. Abergel 62A. Avom 11T. Le Bris

10P. Pagis 17J. Makengo

12B. Dieng

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Stade Brestois 29 Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lorient Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Stade Brestois 29+0.3 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Lorient+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Stade Brestois 29 · Home 1.50points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 4-3-3
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 1.30

Lorient · Away 0.90points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-5
Scored: 0.70
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Stade Brestois 29	Lorient
Nice	D 2–2 AW 4–1 H	W 3–1 H
Toulouse	L 0–2 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 H
Lyon	L 1–2 AD 0–0 H	W 1–0 H
Auxerre	W 2–0 H	L 0–1 A
Rennes	L 1–3 A	W 2–0 AW 4–0 H
Monaco	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 AW 3–1 H
Strasbourg	W 2–1 A	D 0–0 A
Metz	W 3–2 H	D 1–1 H
Marseille	L 0–3 A	L 0–4 A
LE Havre	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–3 H	D 1–1 H
Nantes	D 0–0 H	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Angers	W 2–0 A	L 0–2 A
Paris FC	L 1–2 H	L 0–2 A
Lens	L 1–3 A	L 0–3 A
Lille	D 3–3 H	L 1–7 H
Points	22 of 57 · 1.16 per game	27 of 57 · 1.42 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Stade Brestois 29 wins1 draws3 Lorient wins

Goals per game1.71 – 1.29 Over 2.571% Both scored57% Clean sheets29% · 14%

19 Oct 2025Lorient3–3Stade Brestois 29
31 Mar 2024Lorient0–1Stade Brestois 29
20 Dec 2023Stade Brestois 294–0Lorient
7 May 2023Lorient2–1Stade Brestois 29
9 Oct 2022Stade Brestois 291–2Lorient
27 Feb 2022Stade Brestois 290–1Lorient

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Stade Brestois 29	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.35
Conceded per game	1.65	1.55
Match goals	2.95	2.90	2.55
Over 1.5	80%	85%
Over 2.5	60%	45%	47%
Over 3.5	35%	35%
Both teams scored	50%	55%	51%
Clean sheets	25%	20%
Failed to score	35%	30%
Games	20	20

	Stade Brestois 29	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.40
Conceded per game	1.50	0.90
Match goals	2.70	2.30	2.55
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	47%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	51%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Stade Brestois 29	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	4.61	3.22
Corners conceded	4.78	4.72
Match total	9.39	7.94	9.13
Over 8.5	44% 8/18	33% 6/18
Over 9.5	44% 8/18	28% 5/18
Over 10.5	44% 8/18	22% 4/18
Cards
Cards	1.95	1.90
Opponent cards	1.85	2.20
Match total	3.80	4.10	3.97
Over 3.5	50% 10/20	55% 11/20
Over 4.5	40% 8/20	40% 8/20

	Stade Brestois 29	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	5.38	3.00
Corners conceded	3.88	5.70
Match total	9.26	8.70	9.13
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.10
Opponent cards	2.20	2.20
Match total	4.40	3.30	3.97
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gael Angoula France · 29 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.03league 3.64

Red cards0.17league 0.31

Cards 5+17%league 36%

Fouls20.5league 24.2

Penalties0.38league 0.42

Home wins52%league 49%

Stade Brestois 296 with this referee

Record5-1-0 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.5 Pens for · against5 · 0

W23 Nov 25H · Metz3–22
D4 Oct 25H · Nantes0–02
W15 Dec 24H · Nantes4–13
W31 Aug 24H · Saint Etienne4–00
W17 Sep 23A · Reims2–14

Lorient3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.0.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D14 Dec 25A · Strasbourg0–00
L28 Apr 24H · Toulouse1–21
W22 Oct 23H · Rennes2–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.