Stade Brestois 29 vs Monaco – 5 Dec 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 15 Fri, Dec 5 · 18:00 Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest

Stade Brestois 29 11th · 16 pts · 14 played LDLWW

1–0Full time

Monaco 7th · 23 pts · 14 played WLLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 39). Absences weigh more on Monaco. Stade Brestois 29 had 5.2 days of rest, Monaco 6.1 and had to travel 1,053 km.

Away travel1,053 kmRest days5.2 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Stade Brestois 2937%

Draw27%

Monaco35%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.30

Stade Brestois 2936%

Draw27%

Monaco37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.35

Stade Brestois 2935%

Draw27%

Monaco37%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.34

Stade Brestois 2930%

Draw27%

Monaco42%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.46

Stade Brestois 2938%

Draw27%

Monaco35%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.31

Over 2.5 49% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brest)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceThomas Leonard

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 82

Team strength

Stade Brestois 29

Monaco

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 56

47 AttackIn forecast 45

36 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—

Defense risk—

Monaco

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Stade Brestois 29

Monaco

1.36 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86

1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.79

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.73

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

57% Scored inContext 86%

21% Clean sheetsContext 14%

12.07 ShotsContext 12.21

3.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.79

32% On target shareContext 31%

7.93 Shots in the boxContext 8.46

67% Box shareContext 70%

11% ConversionContext 15%

1.60 OffsidesContext 3.00

12.14 Shots allowedContext 12.86

4.85 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.21

3.38 BlocksContext 4.00

3.08 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

64% Save rateContext 60%

45% PossessionIn forecast 54%

385 PassesContext 485

309 Accurate passesContext 410

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.81

12.36 FoulsContext 12.43

10.43 Fouls sufferedContext 11.57

1.64 Yellow cardsContext 2.29

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.21

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.49 xGVia Att/Def 1.71

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.41

50% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.30 ShotsContext 13.30

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

36% On target shareContext 34%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.89

66% Box shareContext 75%

14% ConversionContext 10%

1.43 OffsidesContext 2.67

11.80 Shots allowedContext 14.60

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

2.80 BlocksContext 4.90

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

68% Save rateContext 66%

45% PossessionIn forecast 51%

393 PassesContext 447

319 Accurate passesContext 371

81% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.87

13.00 FoulsContext 13.70

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.33

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.30

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Stade Brestois 29

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,802 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Monaco

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,053 km1,709 km in 14d

Schedule load17%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Stade Brestois 29	Monaco
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 17
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Nov	6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,053 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,802 km	1,709 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	9.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30G. Coudert(G)

27D. Guindo 44S. Coulibaly 5B. Chardonnet 77K. Lala

8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard

14R. Labeau-Lascary 23K. Doumbia 10R. Del Castillo

19L. Ajorque

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Monaco Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1L. Hrádecký(G)

12Caio Henrique 22M. Salisu 4J. Teze 2Vanderson

28M. Coulibaly 15M. Camara

10A. Golovin 18T. Minamino 11M. Akliouche

14M. Biereth

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Stade Brestois 29 Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Monaco Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Stade Brestois 29+2.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Monaco-1.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Stade Brestois 29 · Home 1.29points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-2
Scored: 1.57
Conceded: 1.57

Monaco · Away 1.17points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-3
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 2.17

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 12 this season

Opponent	Stade Brestois 29	Monaco
Strasbourg	W 2–1 A	W 3–2 H
Metz	W 3–2 H	W 5–2 H
LE Havre	L 0–1 A	W 3–1 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–3 H	W 1–0 H
Lorient	D 3–3 A	L 1–3 A
Nantes	D 0–0 H	W 5–3 A
Angers	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 A
Nice	W 4–1 H	D 2–2 H
Paris FC	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 H
Lens	L 1–3 A	L 1–4 H
Toulouse	L 0–2 A	W 1–0 H
Lille	D 3–3 H	L 0–1 A
Points	15 of 36 · 1.25 per game	20 of 36 · 1.67 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Stade Brestois 29 wins0 draws6 Monaco wins

Goals per game1.13 – 1.88 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets13% · 38%

5 Apr 2025Stade Brestois 292–1Monaco
22 Nov 2024Monaco3–2Stade Brestois 29
21 Apr 2024Stade Brestois 290–2Monaco
5 Nov 2023Monaco2–0Stade Brestois 29
19 Feb 2023Stade Brestois 291–2Monaco
1 Jan 2023Monaco1–0Stade Brestois 29

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Stade Brestois 29	Monaco	Forecast
Scored per game	1.36	1.86
Conceded per game	1.71	1.79
Match goals	3.07	3.64	2.65
Over 1.5	79%	71%
Over 2.5	64%	64%	49%
Over 3.5	36%	57%
Both teams scored	50%	71%	55%
Clean sheets	21%	14%
Failed to score	43%	14%
Games	14	14

	Stade Brestois 29	Monaco	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.80
Conceded per game	1.40	2.00
Match goals	2.80	3.80	2.65
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Stade Brestois 29	Monaco	League
Corners
Corners won	4.62	4.43
Corners conceded	5.00	4.29
Match total	9.62	8.72	9.39
Over 8.5	38% 5/13	50% 7/14
Over 9.5	38% 5/13	43% 6/14
Over 10.5	38% 5/13	36% 5/14
Cards
Cards	1.71	2.57
Opponent cards	1.36	1.86
Match total	3.07	4.43	4.10
Over 3.5	36% 5/14	64% 9/14
Over 4.5	21% 3/14	43% 6/14

	Stade Brestois 29	Monaco	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	3.80
Corners conceded	5.00	4.10
Match total	9.67	7.90	9.39
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	10% 1/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.70
Opponent cards	1.40	2.00
Match total	3.10	4.70	4.10
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 82 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.55league 3.75

Red cards0.26league 0.32

Cards 5+41%league 37%

Fouls24.1league 24.1

Penalties0.27league 0.48

Home wins37%league 50%

Stade Brestois 297 with this referee

Record4-0-3 Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.6 Pens for · against1 · 1

W10 May 25H · Lille2–01
W5 Apr 25H · Monaco2–13
W18 Jan 25A · Rennes2–13
L22 Nov 24A · Monaco2–32
W23 Sep 23H · Lyon1–03

Monaco8 with this referee

Record4-2-2 Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.9 Pens for · against3 · 0

L5 Apr 25A · Stade Brestois 291–22
W15 Feb 25H · Nantes7–11
W22 Nov 24H · Stade Brestois 293–22
W5 Oct 24A · Rennes2–14
D11 Nov 23A · LE Havre0–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.