Standard Liege vs Charleroi – 31 Oct 2025

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Fri, Oct 31 · 19:45 Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Luik

Standard Liege 12th · 14 pts · 12 played WLLWL

3–1Full time

Charleroi 10th · 15 pts · 12 played LLLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Standard Liege were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Standard Liege had 6 days of rest, Charleroi 7 and had to travel 83 km.

Away travel83 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

Standard Liege47%

Draw27%

Charleroi26%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.09

Standard Liege47%

Draw26%

Charleroi26%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.13

Standard Liege47%

Draw27%

Charleroi26%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.09

Standard Liege40%

Draw28%

Charleroi33%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.22

Standard Liege47%

Draw26%

Charleroi26%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.13

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Luik)

No weather data yet

Referee · BelgiumEric Lambrechts

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 39

Team strength

Standard Liege

Charleroi

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

33 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

29 AttackIn forecast 43

29 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Standard Liege

Attack—

Defense risk—

Charleroi

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Standard Liege

Charleroi

0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

1.42 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.42

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.32

58% Scored inContext 83%

25% Clean sheetsContext 17%

10.08 ShotsContext 9.75

3.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.92

32% On target shareContext 40%

6.33 Shots in the boxContext 5.83

63% Box shareContext 59%

8% ConversionContext 13%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.18

15.00 Shots allowedContext 11.42

4.92 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33

4.42 BlocksContext 4.09

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

71% Save rateContext 68%

44% PossessionIn forecast 47%

359 PassesContext 361

278 Accurate passesContext 285

78% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.85

10.83 FoulsContext 11.42

12.08 Fouls sufferedContext 12.33

2.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.08

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.86 xGVia Att/Def 0.91

1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.02

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.29

50% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.20 ShotsContext 9.80

2.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

28% On target shareContext 39%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 5.50

65% Box shareContext 57%

7% ConversionContext 12%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.70 Shots allowedContext 11.60

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.30

4.50 BlocksContext 4.33

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

71% Save rateContext 70%

43% PossessionIn forecast 47%

341 PassesContext 366

260 Accurate passesContext 290

76% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.87

10.80 FoulsContext 10.50

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Standard Liege

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km276 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Charleroi

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel83 km99 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Standard Liege	Charleroi
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 25 Oct	7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	83 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	276 km	99 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	8.8	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Standard Liege Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Epolo(G)

7T. Mohr 24J. Homawoo 25I. Hautekiet 20I. Karamoko

6H. Sahabo 94C. Nielsen

17R. Saïd 27Mo El Hankouri 11A. Abid

9T. Henry

Charleroi Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

55M. Delavallée(G)

24M. Nzita 95C. Keita 4A. Ousou 3K. Van Den Kerkhof

5É. Camara 22Y. Titraoui

10P. Guiagon 8J. Romsaas 14P. Pflücke

21A. Scheidler

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Standard Liege Absences are shown before kick-off

Charleroi Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Standard Liege+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Charleroi+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Standard Liege · Home 1.33points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.33

Charleroi · Away 1.17points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-3
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Standard Liege	Charleroi
Gent	L 0–4 A	L 1–2 A
Antwerp	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Anderlecht	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 H
KV Mechelen	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 H
OH Leuven	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 A
Cercle Brugge	L 0–3 H	W 3–2 A
Union St. Gilloise	L 0–3 A	L 1–3 A
Genk	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 A
Dender	D 1–1 H	W 3–1 H
RAAL La Louvière	W 2–0 A	L 0–1 A
Points	11 of 30 · 1.10 per game	14 of 30 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Standard Liege wins2 draws0 Charleroi wins

Goals per game0.50 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 50%

16 Dec 2023Standard Liege0–0Charleroi
13 Aug 2023Charleroi1–1Standard Liege

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Standard Liege	Charleroi	Forecast
Scored per game	0.83	1.25
Conceded per game	1.42	1.42
Match goals	2.25	2.67	2.61
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	42%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	8%	33%
Both teams scored	33%	67%	53%
Clean sheets	25%	17%
Failed to score	42%	17%
Games	12	12

	Standard Liege	Charleroi	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.20
Conceded per game	1.60	1.40
Match goals	2.30	2.60	2.61
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	48%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Standard Liege	Charleroi	League
Corners
Corners won	4.08	3.92
Corners conceded	5.42	4.58
Match total	9.50	8.50	9.54
Over 8.5	42% 5/12	33% 4/12
Over 9.5	33% 4/12	25% 3/12
Over 10.5	25% 3/12	25% 3/12
Cards
Cards	2.67	2.25
Opponent cards	2.00	1.58
Match total	4.67	3.83	4.09
Over 3.5	75% 9/12	50% 6/12
Over 4.5	58% 7/12	33% 4/12

	Standard Liege	Charleroi	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	3.80
Corners conceded	5.80	4.40
Match total	10.10	8.20	9.54
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.00
Opponent cards	1.90	1.60
Match total	4.80	3.60	4.09
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Eric Lambrechts Belgium · 39 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.92league 3.83

Red cards0.13league 0.21

Cards 5+38%league 41%

Fouls23.3league 23.3

Penalties0.33league 0.27

Home wins46%league 42%

Standard Liege2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D27 Dec 23H · St. Truiden1–11
W8 Oct 23H · Club Brugge KV2–14

Charleroi3 with this referee

Record0-0-3 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L11 Feb 24H · Anderlecht1–30
L21 Jan 24A · Antwerp1–42
L10 Dec 23H · Union St. Gilloise1–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.