Standard Liege
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Standard Liege
12th · 14 pts · 12 played
WLLWL
3–1Full time
Charleroi
10th · 15 pts · 12 played
LLLLW
Standard Liege46.8%fair odds 2.14
Draw26.8%fair odds 3.72
Charleroi26.4%fair odds 3.79
Expected goals1.53 – 1.09total 2.61
Likeliest score1–112.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Charleroi
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Standard Liege ↓ · Charleroi → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Standard Liege goals, columns Charleroi goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%7.81
- 1–010.5%9.48
- 2–19.3%10.77
- 2–08.5%11.70
- 0–08.0%12.54
- 0–17.3%13.67
- 1–26.6%15.14
- 2–25.0%19.83
- 3–14.7%21.17
- 3–04.3%22.99
Winning margin
9.6%
Standard Liege by 3+
fair 10.37
14.4%
Standard Liege by 2
fair 6.96
22.8%
Standard Liege by 1
fair 4.39
26.8%
Draw
fair 3.72
16.0%
Charleroi by 1
fair 6.24
7.3%
Charleroi by 2
fair 13.75
3.1%
Charleroi by 3+
fair 32.61
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Standard Liege goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Charleroi goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege win | 46.8% | 47.4% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 26.2% | +0.6 pp |
| Charleroi win | 26.4% | 26.4% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.5% | 51.0% | -2.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.5% | 54.4% | -1.9 pp |
| Expected goals Standard Liege | 1.53 | 1.59 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Charleroi | 1.09 | 1.13 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Standard Liege win46.8%2.14
- Draw26.8%3.72
- Charleroi win26.4%3.79
- Double chance Standard Liege or draw73.6%1.36
- Double chance Standard Liege or Charleroi73.2%1.37
- Double chance Charleroi or draw53.2%1.88
- Draw no bet Standard Liege64.0%1.56
- Draw no bet Charleroi36.0%2.78
Goals
- Over 0.592.0%1.09
- Over 1.574.2%1.35
- Over 2.548.5%2.06
- Over 3.526.7%3.75
- Over 4.512.4%8.03
- Under 1.525.8%3.87
- Under 2.551.5%1.94
- Under 3.573.3%1.36
Both teams to score
- Yes52.5%1.90
- No47.5%2.11
- Yes and over 2.539.7%2.52
- Standard Liege win and yes21.0%4.76
- Draw and yes18.9%5.30
- Charleroi win and yes12.6%7.93
Team goals
- Standard Liege over 0.578.3%1.28
- Standard Liege over 1.545.1%2.22
- Standard Liege over 2.519.8%5.05
- Charleroi over 0.566.3%1.51
- Charleroi over 1.529.6%3.38
- Charleroi over 2.59.7%10.33
- Standard Liege clean sheet33.7%2.96
- Charleroi clean sheet21.7%4.60
- Standard Liege win to nil25.8%3.88
- Charleroi win to nil13.7%7.28
Handicap
- Standard Liege −1.524.0%4.16
- Standard Liege −2.59.6%10.37
- Charleroi +1.576.0%1.32
- Charleroi +2.590.4%1.11
- Charleroi −1.510.3%9.67
- Standard Liege +1.589.7%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored96
Favourite won44.8%
Avg chance given to result38.2%
1X2 Brier0.615
Over 2.5 called right55.2%
BTTS called right51.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 17 | 38.4% | 23.5% |
| 40–50% | 49 | 45.1% | 34.7% |
| 50–60% | 20 | 55.2% | 70.0% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 65.2% | 88.9% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.5% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 58 of 96 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6200 | 0.6189 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.3% | 38.9% |
| Favourite won | 43.1% | 44.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 58 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–0 St. Truiden61·23·16
- ✗Genk 1–1 RAAL La Louvière53·25·22
- ✗Cercle Brugge 1–1 Zulte Waregem41·27·31
- ✓Antwerp 0–1 Club Brugge KV26·26·48
- ✓Gent 4–0 Standard Liege53·25·22
- ✗KV Mechelen 1–1 OH Leuven56·25·20
- ✗KVC Westerlo 1–1 Dender49·26·25
- ✗Charleroi 1–0 Anderlecht26·26·48
- ✗Standard Liege 1–0 Antwerp36·28·37
- ✗Zulte Waregem 4–1 Gent33·27·40
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 96 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.