Standard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 30). Standard Liege had 8 days of rest, Genk 7.2 and had to travel 37 km.
Away travel37 kmRest days8 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
Standard Liege39%
Draw27%
Genk34%
Standard Liege39%
Draw27%
Genk33%
Standard Liege39%
Draw27%
Genk34%
Standard Liege32%
Draw26%
Genk42%
Standard Liege39%
Draw27%
Genk34%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.08
- Matches 25
Team strength
Standard Liege
Genk
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
29
AttackIn forecast
46
29
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Standard LiegeGenk
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
0.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.50
ShotsContext
16.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
53%
On target shareContext
41%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
53%
Box shareContext
66%
16%
ConversionContext
6%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
11.50
Shots allowedContext
12.00
2.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.00
BlocksContext
3.50
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
451
PassesContext
551
369
Accurate passesContext
484
82%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.14
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.00
FoulsContext
9.00
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
14.90
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
39%
On target shareContext
32%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
65%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.29
11.00
Shots allowedContext
10.60
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.70
BlocksContext
1.90
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
70%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
466
PassesContext
473
378
Accurate passesContext
389
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.05
Team ratingContext
7.02
10.80
FoulsContext
12.30
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Standard Liege
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genk
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel37 km323 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Standard Liege |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 2 Aug | 7.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 3 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 37 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 323 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
22A. Calut
24J. Homawoo
29D. Dierckx
13M. Fossey
23M. Ilaimaharitra
94C. Nielsen
7T. Mohr
8N. Mehssatou
17R. Saïd
9T. Henry
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
8B. Heynen
24N. Sattlberger
32N. Adedeji-Sternberg
20K. Karetsas
7J. Steuckers
9H. Oh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Standard Liege
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Genk+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Standard Liege · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Genk · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Standard Liege wins0 draws1 Genk wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 10 Mar 2024Genk1–0Standard Liege
- 25 Nov 2023Standard Liege1–0Genk
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Standard Liege | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Standard Liege | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Standard Liege | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 10.00 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Standard Liege | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.20 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.90 | 3.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.48league 3.59
Red cards0.28league 0.18
Cards 5+48%league 32%
Fouls23.0league 23.2
Penalties0.08league 0.41
Home wins44%league 45%
Standard Liege2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W16 Mar 24H · AS Eupen4–00
- D26 Aug 23A · Kortrijk1–12
Genk1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L23 Dec 23A · Anderlecht1–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Standard Liege2 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Genk2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
