Standard Liege
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Standard Liege39.1%fair odds 2.56
Draw26.5%fair odds 3.77
Genk34.4%fair odds 2.91
Expected goals1.45 – 1.35total 2.79
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Genk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Standard Liege ↓ · Genk → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Standard Liege goals, columns Genk goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.97
- 2–18.6%11.58
- 1–08.2%12.15
- 1–28.0%12.47
- 0–17.6%13.16
- 0–06.7%14.82
- 2–06.4%15.57
- 2–25.8%17.21
- 0–25.5%18.07
- 3–14.2%23.97
Winning margin
7.2%
Standard Liege by 3+
fair 13.97
11.8%
Standard Liege by 2
fair 8.51
20.2%
Standard Liege by 1
fair 4.96
26.5%
Draw
fair 3.77
18.7%
Genk by 1
fair 5.35
10.1%
Genk by 2
fair 9.87
5.6%
Genk by 3+
fair 17.99
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Standard Liege goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Genk goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege win | 39.1% | 39.4% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 26.5% | 26.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Genk win | 34.4% | 33.7% | +0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 51.3% | +1.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.2% | 55.9% | +1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Standard Liege | 1.45 | 1.43 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Genk | 1.35 | 1.30 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Standard Liege win39.1%2.56
- Draw26.5%3.77
- Genk win34.4%2.91
- Double chance Standard Liege or draw65.6%1.52
- Double chance Standard Liege or Genk73.5%1.36
- Double chance Genk or draw60.9%1.64
- Draw no bet Standard Liege53.2%1.88
- Draw no bet Genk46.8%2.14
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.4%1.29
- Over 2.552.9%1.89
- Over 3.530.7%3.26
- Over 4.515.1%6.61
- Under 1.522.6%4.43
- Under 2.547.1%2.12
- Under 3.569.3%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes57.2%1.75
- No42.8%2.34
- Yes and over 2.544.7%2.24
- Standard Liege win and yes19.8%5.05
- Draw and yes19.8%5.05
- Genk win and yes17.6%5.67
Team goals
- Standard Liege over 0.576.5%1.31
- Standard Liege over 1.542.5%2.35
- Standard Liege over 2.517.8%5.60
- Genk over 0.573.9%1.35
- Genk over 1.538.9%2.57
- Genk over 2.515.3%6.52
- Standard Liege clean sheet26.1%3.84
- Genk clean sheet23.5%4.26
- Standard Liege win to nil19.3%5.18
- Genk win to nil16.7%5.98
Handicap
- Standard Liege −1.518.9%5.29
- Standard Liege −2.57.2%13.97
- Genk +1.581.1%1.23
- Genk +2.592.8%1.08
- Genk −1.515.7%6.37
- Standard Liege +1.584.3%1.19
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored22
Favourite won40.9%
Avg chance given to result38.2%
1X2 Brier0.614
Over 2.5 called right63.6%
BTTS called right59.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.4% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 12 | 43.2% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 55.8% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 64.2% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 6 of 22 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5916 | 0.5795 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.0% | 41.9% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 6 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Anderlecht 2–3 Zulte Waregem63·22·15
- ✓RAAL La Louvière 1–0 Charleroi45·28·27
- ✗Gent 2–3 Union St. Gilloise38·26·35
- ✗KVC Westerlo 0–1 KV Mechelen37·28·35
- ✓Club Brugge KV 2–0 Cercle Brugge67·20·13
- ✓St. Truiden 2–0 Dender42·27·31
- ✗Charleroi 1–1 St. Truiden39·27·33
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 5–0 OH Leuven64·21·15
- ✓Cercle Brugge 0–2 Anderlecht29·27·44
- ✗Genk 1–1 Antwerp39·27·33
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 22 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.