Standard Liege
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Standard Liege62.3%fair odds 1.61
Draw21.3%fair odds 4.70
Kortrijk16.4%fair odds 6.10
Expected goals2.09 – 0.99total 3.08
Likeliest score2–010.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Kortrijk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Standard Liege ↓ · Kortrijk → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Standard Liege goals, columns Kortrijk goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.1%9.92
- 1–110.0%9.99
- 2–19.9%10.06
- 1–09.1%10.94
- 3–07.0%14.23
- 3–16.9%14.44
- 0–05.1%19.55
- 2–24.9%20.43
- 1–24.7%21.36
- 0–14.0%24.74
Winning margin
20.1%
Standard Liege by 3+
fair 4.98
19.1%
Standard Liege by 2
fair 5.25
23.1%
Standard Liege by 1
fair 4.32
21.3%
Draw
fair 4.70
10.6%
Kortrijk by 1
fair 9.40
4.2%
Kortrijk by 2
fair 23.62
1.5%
Kortrijk by 3+
fair 65.31
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Standard Liege goals
12%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
Kortrijk goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege win | 62.3% | 62.5% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 21.3% | 21.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Kortrijk win | 16.4% | 16.5% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 60.9% | -1.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.4% | 56.7% | -1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Standard Liege | 2.09 | 2.13 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Kortrijk | 0.99 | 1.02 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Standard Liege win62.3%1.61
- Draw21.3%4.70
- Kortrijk win16.4%6.10
- Double chance Standard Liege or draw83.6%1.20
- Double chance Standard Liege or Kortrijk78.7%1.27
- Double chance Kortrijk or draw37.7%2.65
- Draw no bet Standard Liege79.2%1.26
- Draw no bet Kortrijk20.8%4.80
Goals
- Over 0.594.9%1.05
- Over 1.581.7%1.22
- Over 2.559.4%1.68
- Over 3.537.0%2.70
- Over 4.519.8%5.06
- Under 1.518.3%5.46
- Under 2.540.6%2.46
- Under 3.563.0%1.59
Both teams to score
- Yes55.4%1.80
- No44.6%2.24
- Yes and over 2.545.4%2.20
- Standard Liege win and yes30.1%3.32
- Draw and yes16.2%6.18
- Kortrijk win and yes9.2%10.91
Team goals
- Standard Liege over 0.587.6%1.14
- Standard Liege over 1.561.8%1.62
- Standard Liege over 2.534.8%2.87
- Kortrijk over 0.562.7%1.60
- Kortrijk over 1.525.9%3.86
- Kortrijk over 2.57.8%12.88
- Standard Liege clean sheet37.3%2.68
- Kortrijk clean sheet12.4%8.09
- Standard Liege win to nil32.2%3.10
- Kortrijk win to nil7.2%13.81
Handicap
- Standard Liege −1.539.2%2.55
- Standard Liege −2.520.1%4.98
- Kortrijk +1.560.8%1.64
- Kortrijk +2.579.9%1.25
- Kortrijk −1.55.8%17.35
- Standard Liege +1.594.2%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored72
Favourite won61.1%
Avg chance given to result45.0%
1X2 Brier0.511
Over 2.5 called right56.9%
BTTS called right44.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.4% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 30 | 45.4% | 46.7% |
| 50–60% | 19 | 55.0% | 78.9% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 64.8% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 72.9% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 83.9% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 47 of 72 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5318 | 0.5330 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.5% | 43.2% |
| Favourite won | 59.6% | 63.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 47 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 72 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.