Standard Liege vs Kortrijk

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Oct 31 · 17:15 Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Luik

Standard Liege 9th · 11 pts · 8 played WWLLL

VS— Compare

Kortrijk 18th · 3 pts · 8 played LLLWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Standard Liege are clear favourites.

Standard Liege are the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kortrijk. Standard Liege have 6.2 days of rest, Kortrijk 7.9 and have to travel 163 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel163 kmRest days6.2 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Standard Liege62%

Draw21%

Kortrijk16%

Expected goals 2.09 – 0.99

Standard Liege63%

Draw22%

Kortrijk15%

Expected goals 2.02 – 0.89

Standard Liege62%

Draw21%

Kortrijk16%

Expected goals 2.09 – 0.99

Standard Liege55%

Draw24%

Kortrijk22%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.11

Standard Liege63%

Draw21%

Kortrijk17%

Expected goals 2.14 – 1.02

Over 2.5 59% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Luik)

11°CMainly clear

Precipitation 21%
Wind 8 km/h
Humidity 82%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Standard Liege 3 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Standard Liege

Kortrijk

33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 12

33 Current StrengthIn forecast 12

29 AttackIn forecast 10

29 DefenceIn forecast 16

30 Form indexContext 13

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Standard Liege

Attack—

Defense risk—

Kortrijk

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Standard Liege

Kortrijk

1.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.25

1.63 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.25

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 0.81

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.15

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.56

88% Scored inContext 25%

25% Clean sheetsContext 13%

13.50 ShotsContext 11.25

4.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.63

36% On target shareContext 23%

9.75 Shots in the boxContext 6.88

69% Box shareContext 59%

12% ConversionContext 2%

2.43 OffsidesContext 3.00

14.50 Shots allowedContext 14.25

4.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.25

4.29 BlocksContext 3.00

2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

61% Save rateContext 62%

52% PossessionIn forecast 44%

459 PassesContext 396

365 Accurate passesContext 314

79% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.47

9.88 FoulsContext 12.00

10.88 Fouls sufferedContext 9.88

1.13 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.30

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 0.81

1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.15

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.51

80% Scored inContext 30%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.70 ShotsContext 10.40

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.60

38% On target shareContext 25%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 6.30

70% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 3%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.86

15.20 Shots allowedContext 14.60

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

4.67 BlocksContext 3.20

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

61% Save rateContext 67%

50% PossessionIn forecast 43%

433 PassesContext 383

341 Accurate passesContext 297

79% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.57

10.10 FoulsContext 11.80

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Standard Liege WWLLL

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km74 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 30 · 6 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected

L11 OctH · Charleroi0–11.4 xPts
L18 SepA · Gent1–20.9 xPts
L12 SepA · KVC Westerlo2–41.4 xPts
W5 SepH · Antwerp1–01.7 xPts
W29 AugA · OH Leuven2–11.6 xPts

Kortrijk LLLWL

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel163 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 13 · 3 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

L10 OctA · Genk0–30.5 xPts
W20 SepH · SK Beveren1–01.2 xPts
L13 SepA · RAAL La Louvière0–31.0 xPts
L6 SepH · Zulte Waregem0–21.0 xPts
L3 SepA · Anderlecht0–10.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Standard Liege	Kortrijk
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 25 Oct	7.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 23 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	163 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	74 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Standard Liege Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Charleroi (H) 0–1, 11 Oct

1M. Epolo(G)

3Gustav Mortensen 25I. Hautekiet 20I. Karamoko 13M. Fossey

84R. Touzghar 22A. Trouillet 94C. Nielsen

11A. Abid 10D. Eckert Ayensa 17Bernard Nguene

Kortrijk Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Genk (A) 0–3, 10 Oct

1P. Gunnarsson(G)

3M. Anderson 4H. Murray-Campbell 21A. Drouhin 36R. Kohon

70A. Phillips 35B. Lambert 19B. Dejaegere

68T. Ambrose 10G. Koyalipou 11S. Campbell

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Standard Liege No reported absences

Kortrijk No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Standard Liege+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Kortrijk+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Standard Liege · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 0.75

Kortrijk · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Standard Liege	Kortrijk
Charleroi	L 0–1 H	L 1–3 H
Antwerp	W 1–0 H	L 0–3 H
RAAL La Louvière	W 2–0 H	L 0–3 A
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	0 of 9 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Standard Liege wins1 draws1 Kortrijk wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

20 Jan 2024Standard Liege0–1Kortrijk
26 Aug 2023Kortrijk1–1Standard Liege

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Standard Liege	Kortrijk	Forecast
Scored per game	1.63	0.25
Conceded per game	1.63	2.25
Match goals	3.25	2.50	3.08
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	63%	63%	59%
Over 3.5	38%	13%
Both teams scored	63%	13%	55%
Clean sheets	25%	13%
Failed to score	13%	75%
Games	8	8

	Standard Liege	Kortrijk	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	0.25
Conceded per game	1.40	2.25
Match goals	2.80	2.50	3.08
Over 1.5	70%	75%
Over 2.5	50%	63%	59%
Over 3.5	30%	13%
Both teams scored	60%	13%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	13%
Failed to score	20%	75%
Games	10	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Standard Liege	Kortrijk	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	3.43
Corners conceded	5.00	6.29
Match total	11.00	9.72	10.01
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.25	2.00
Opponent cards	1.25	1.63
Match total	2.50	3.63	3.36
Over 3.5	25% 2/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	0% 0/8	25% 2/8

	Standard Liege	Kortrijk	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	3.67
Corners conceded	5.40	6.56
Match total	10.90	10.23	10.01
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.80
Opponent cards	1.70	1.50
Match total	3.20	3.30	3.36
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.