Strasbourg vs Lorient – 14 Dec 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 16 Sun, Dec 14 · 16:15 Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg

Strasbourg 9th · 22 pts · 15 played LWLLL

0–0Full time

Lorient 13th · 17 pts · 15 played LDDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Strasbourg were clear favourites.

Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 25). Strasbourg had 7.9 days of rest, Lorient 6.9 and had to travel 829 km.

Away travel829 kmRest days7.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Strasbourg60%

Draw23%

Lorient17%

Expected goals 1.92 – 0.93

Strasbourg59%

Draw23%

Lorient18%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.94

Strasbourg60%

Draw23%

Lorient17%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.92

Strasbourg53%

Draw25%

Lorient22%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

Strasbourg60%

Draw23%

Lorient18%

Expected goals 1.92 – 0.95

Over 2.5 54% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Strasbourg)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceGael Angoula

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.41
Matches 27

Team strength

Strasbourg

Lorient

48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

40 AttackIn forecast 28

37 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Strasbourg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Strasbourg

Lorient

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.27

1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.87

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

87% Scored inContext 67%

40% Clean sheetsContext 13%

10.53 ShotsContext 11.67

4.36 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

39% On target shareContext 33%

7.73 Shots in the boxContext 7.73

72% Box shareContext 67%

16% ConversionContext 11%

1.79 OffsidesContext 2.67

10.07 Shots allowedContext 9.47

4.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.07

3.27 BlocksContext 2.62

2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

69% Save rateContext 61%

52% PossessionIn forecast 44%

510 PassesContext 401

449 Accurate passesContext 339

88% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.73

11.80 FoulsContext 10.67

13.93 Fouls sufferedContext 14.87

1.93 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.97

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

80% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.90 ShotsContext 12.20

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

39% On target shareContext 33%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

68% Box shareContext 65%

13% ConversionContext 11%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.50

10.00 Shots allowedContext 8.40

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

3.57 BlocksContext 2.22

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

70% Save rateContext 67%

57% PossessionIn forecast 44%

555 PassesContext 404

490 Accurate passesContext 342

88% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.82

10.60 FoulsContext 9.40

14.70 Fouls sufferedContext 14.20

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Strasbourg

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,472 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lorient

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel829 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Strasbourg	Lorient
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 6 Dec	6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	829 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,472 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	20.1	21

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Strasbourg Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

39M. Penders(G)

6I. Doukouré 23M. Sarr 22G. Doué

7Diego Moreira 32V. Barco 29S. El Mourabet 27S. Amo-Ameyaw

11A. Nanasi 19J. Enciso

9J. Panichelli

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

38Y. Mvogo(G)

44D. Yongwa 3M. Talbi 5B. Meïté

43Arsène Kouassi 62A. Avom 6L. Abergel 11T. Le Bris

10P. Pagis 17J. Makengo

28S. Soumano

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Strasbourg Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lorient Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Strasbourg+0.5 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Lorient-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Strasbourg · Home 2.14points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 5-0-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.57

Lorient · Away 0.29points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-5
Scored: 0.29
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Strasbourg	Lorient
Toulouse	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 H
Stade Brestois 29	L 1–2 H	D 3–3 H
Lens	L 0–1 A	L 0–3 A
Lille	W 2–0 H	L 1–7 H
Rennes	L 1–4 A	W 4–0 H
Auxerre	W 3–0 H	L 0–1 A
Lyon	L 1–2 A	W 1–0 H
Paris Saint Germain	D 3–3 A	D 1–1 H
Angers	W 5–0 H	L 0–2 A
Marseille	L 1–2 H	L 0–4 A
Paris FC	W 3–2 A	L 0–2 A
LE Havre	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Monaco	L 2–3 A	W 3–1 H
Nantes	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Points	19 of 42 · 1.36 per game	14 of 42 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Strasbourg wins2 draws2 Lorient wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.17 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 17%

18 Feb 2024Strasbourg1–3Lorient
17 Dec 2023Lorient1–2Strasbourg
3 Jun 2023Lorient2–1Strasbourg
13 Nov 2022Strasbourg1–1Lorient
20 Mar 2022Lorient0–0Strasbourg
31 Oct 2021Strasbourg4–0Lorient

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Strasbourg	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	1.27
Conceded per game	1.33	1.87
Match goals	3.00	3.13	2.85
Over 1.5	67%	87%
Over 2.5	60%	47%	54%
Over 3.5	33%	40%
Both teams scored	47%	53%	52%
Clean sheets	40%	13%
Failed to score	13%	33%
Games	15	15

	Strasbourg	Lorient	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.30
Conceded per game	1.50	1.50
Match goals	3.20	2.80	2.85
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	54%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Strasbourg	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	2.93	3.38
Corners conceded	3.93	4.15
Match total	6.86	7.53	9.29
Over 8.5	21% 3/14	31% 4/13
Over 9.5	14% 2/14	23% 3/13
Over 10.5	14% 2/14	15% 2/13
Cards
Cards	2.27	2.20
Opponent cards	1.93	2.20
Match total	4.20	4.40	4.05
Over 3.5	73% 11/15	67% 10/15
Over 4.5	33% 5/15	47% 7/15

	Strasbourg	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	3.67
Corners conceded	4.33	3.78
Match total	7.33	7.45	9.29
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	11% 1/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.30
Opponent cards	1.80	1.90
Match total	4.10	3.20	4.05
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gael Angoula France · 27 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.11league 3.71

Red cards0.19league 0.31

Cards 5+19%league 36%

Fouls20.6league 24.2

Penalties0.41league 0.48

Home wins52%league 51%

Strasbourg

No previous matches with this referee.

Lorient2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L28 Apr 24H · Toulouse1–21
W22 Oct 23H · Rennes2–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.