Ligue 1 Gameweek 17 Sat, Jan 23 · 16:00 Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg
Strasbourg 14th · 7 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Lyon 1st · 14 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel377 kmRest days7 · 1.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Strasbourg—%
Draw—%
Lyon—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Strasbourg)

Forecast from 8 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Strasbourg and Lyon. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

StrasbourgLyon
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
45 Current StrengthIn forecast 60
40 AttackIn forecast 55
37 DefenceIn forecast 56
24 Form indexContext 85
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Strasbourg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Lyon

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

StrasbourgLyon
1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.86
2.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71
0.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.22
2.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60
+0.85 Goals minus xGContext +0.64
86% Scored inContext 86%
0% Clean sheetsContext 43%
12.29 ShotsContext 12.29
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
41% On target shareContext 38%
8.14 Shots in the boxContext 8.57
63% Box shareContext 71%
14% ConversionContext 15%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.20
16.43 Shots allowedContext 11.86
6.14 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.14
5.33 BlocksContext 1.71
4.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29
67% Save rateContext 79%
45% PossessionIn forecast 52%
435 PassesContext 468
377 Accurate passesContext 400
87% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.70 Team ratingContext 6.97
11.14 FoulsContext 11.00
8.43 Fouls sufferedContext 14.14
1.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.43
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.32
1.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57
+0.79 Goals minus xGContext +0.58
90% Scored inContext 90%
0% Clean sheetsContext 30%
12.50 ShotsContext 12.70
5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.89
42% On target shareContext 42%
8.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.10
63% Box shareContext 72%
16% ConversionContext 15%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.57
16.70 Shots allowedContext 12.40
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
5.44 BlocksContext 2.30
4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40
70% Save rateContext 76%
48% PossessionIn forecast 52%
454 PassesContext 457
393 Accurate passesContext 389
87% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.78 Team ratingContext 6.95
10.80 FoulsContext 10.50
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Strasbourg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Paris Saint Germain1–30.5 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Nice1–21.5 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Paris FC1–21.3 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Monaco1–11.4 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Estac Troyes6–21.7 xPts
Lyon
Rest1.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel377 km3,087 km in 14d
Schedule load31%Moderate
Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +4.3 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Nice2–12.2 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Crystal Palace3–21.5 xPts
  • L9 OctA · Lens1–21.1 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Rennes4–01.6 xPts
  • W16 SepA · Anderlecht2–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Strasbourg Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 31
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 16 Jan1.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km377 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km3,087 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 22 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one75.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Strasbourg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Paris Saint Germain (H) 1–3, 17 Oct
1F. Jørgensen(G)
36Oso 31Karim Coulibaly 4J. Mitchell 16Genesis Antwi
21Pape Diop 14Dário Essugo
19Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé 10G. Reyna 80Gessime Yassine
40C. Harder
Lyon Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Nice (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
40R. Descamps(G)
16Abner 19M. Niakhaté 22Clinton Mata 13Z. Athekame
2M. Bidstrup 6F. Tessmann
24J. Duranville 99N. Nartey 26K. Boudache
10P. Šulc

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Strasbourg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Lyon Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Strasbourg · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.67
Lyon · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentStrasbourgLyon
Nice L 1–2 A W 2–1 H
Paris FC L 1–2 A D 0–0 A
Lens W 2–1 H L 1–2 A
Points3 of 9 · 1.00 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Strasbourg wins1 draws5 Lyon wins
Goals per game1.90 – 1.90 Over 2.590% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 22 Feb 2026Strasbourg3–1Lyon
  • 26 Oct 2025Lyon2–1Strasbourg
  • 28 Mar 2025Strasbourg4–2Lyon
  • 30 Aug 2024Lyon4–3Strasbourg
  • 19 May 2024Lyon2–1Strasbourg
  • 13 Aug 2023Strasbourg2–1Lyon

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

StrasbourgLyonForecast
Scored per game 1.711.86
Conceded per game 2.140.71
Match goals 3.862.57
Over 1.5 100%86%
Over 2.5 86%57%
Over 3.5 43%29%
Both teams scored 86%57%
Clean sheets 0%43%
Failed to score 14%14%
Games77
StrasbourgLyonForecast
Scored per game 2.001.90
Conceded per game 2.101.00
Match goals 4.102.90
Over 1.5 100%90%
Over 2.5 80%70%
Over 3.5 40%30%
Both teams scored 90%70%
Clean sheets 0%30%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

StrasbourgLyonLeague
Corners
Corners won3.004.29
Corners conceded4.806.29
Match total7.8010.589.63
Over 8.560% 3/586% 6/7
Over 9.50% 0/586% 6/7
Over 10.50% 0/557% 4/7
Cards
Cards1.711.57
Opponent cards1.292.14
Match total3.003.713.47
Over 3.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 4.514% 1/729% 2/7
StrasbourgLyonLeague
Corners
Corners won3.294.40
Corners conceded5.006.00
Match total8.2910.409.63
Over 8.571% 5/780% 8/10
Over 9.514% 1/780% 8/10
Over 10.50% 0/750% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.701.50
Opponent cards1.302.10
Match total3.003.603.47
Over 3.540% 4/1050% 5/10
Over 4.520% 2/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Strasbourg7 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 61-75
5 7 76-90
Lyon7 games · scored 13 · conceded 5
1 0-15
2 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 46-60
1 1 61-75
4 1 76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 20 · conceded 21
1 3 0-15
2 1 16-30
5 4 31-45
4 3 46-60
2 3 61-75
6 7 76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Lille Paris FC Jan 2316:00 Paris Saint Germain Auxerre Jan 2316:00 Strasbourg Lyon Jan 2316:00 Toulouse Nice Jan 2316:00 Lorient Marseille Jan 2316:00 Estac Troyes Monaco Jan 2316:00 LE Havre Rennes Jan 2316:00 Lens Stade Brestois 29 Jan 2316:00 Le Mans Angers Jan 2316:00