Lille vs Paris FC – 23 Jan 2027

Ligue 1 Gameweek 17 Sat, Jan 23 · 16:00 Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille

Lille 4th · 14 pts · 7 played WWLWD

VS— Compare

Paris FC 3rd · 14 pts · 7 played WDWLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel204 kmRest days3.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Lille—%

Draw—%

Paris FC—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Lille)

Forecast from 8 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Lille

Paris FC

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

42 AttackIn forecast 46

60 DefenceIn forecast 38

39 Form indexContext 73

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Paris FC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lille

Paris FC

1.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.71

0.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 2.11

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

100% Scored inContext 57%

57% Clean sheetsContext 43%

12.00 ShotsContext 14.43

5.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

46% On target shareContext 35%

8.14 Shots in the boxContext 9.43

67% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 12%

3.00 OffsidesContext 1.71

15.00 Shots allowedContext 9.57

3.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.50 BlocksContext 3.00

2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

80% Save rateContext 71%

51% PossessionIn forecast 52%

480 PassesContext 575

417 Accurate passesContext 508

87% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.57 FoulsContext 13.71

14.43 Fouls sufferedContext 10.57

1.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.29

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

80% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.50 ShotsContext 14.40

4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

42% On target shareContext 35%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.70

63% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 13%

3.11 OffsidesContext 2.10

14.80 Shots allowedContext 9.90

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

4.00 BlocksContext 2.67

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

69% Save rateContext 69%

51% PossessionIn forecast 50%

480 PassesContext 524

417 Accurate passesContext 457

87% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.83

10.90 FoulsContext 12.40

14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lille WLWLD

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel8 km1,662 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

D17 OctH · Stade Brestois 291–11.8 xPts
L13 OctA · Arsenal0–30.4 xPts
W10 OctH · LE Havre1–02.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Nice1–21.9 xPts
W13 SepH · Estac Troyes2–02.4 xPts

Paris FC WDWLW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel204 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 73 · 10 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

W18 OctH · Rennes4–31.3 xPts
L10 OctA · Lorient0–11.4 xPts
W19 SepH · Strasbourg2–11.5 xPts
D12 SepH · Lyon0–01.4 xPts
W6 SepA · Marseille3–20.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lille	Paris FC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 19 Jan	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 16 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	8 km	204 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,662 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 2 / 3	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4.2	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lille Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Stade Brestois 29 (H) 1–1, 17 Oct

12O. Gill(G)

15R. Perraud 23T. Nianzou 3N. Ngoy 38Maxima Goffi

17N. Mukau 21B. André

7D. Bakwa 10H. Haraldsson 8E. Mbappé

9O. Giroud

Paris FC Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Rennes (H) 4–3, 18 Oct

1K. Trapp(G)

14H. Traoré 42D. Coppola 31Samir Sophian Chergui 17Adama Camara

33P. Lees-Melou 20M. Lopez

15L. Koleosho 7P. Pagis 10I. Kebbal

9L. Sinayoko

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lille Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Paris FC Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lille · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.75

Paris FC · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Lille	Paris FC
Nice	L 1–2 A	W 3–0 H
Estac Troyes	W 2–0 H	D 0–0 A
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Lille wins0 draws0 Paris FC wins

Goals per game2.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

26 Apr 2026Paris FC0–1Lille
23 Nov 2025Lille4–2Paris FC

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lille	Paris FC
Scored per game	1.43	1.71
Conceded per game	0.71	1.00
Match goals	2.14	2.71
Over 1.5	71%	57%
Over 2.5	29%	57%
Over 3.5	14%	29%
Both teams scored	43%	43%
Clean sheets	57%	43%
Failed to score	0%	43%
Games	7	7

	Lille	Paris FC
Scored per game	1.20	1.90
Conceded per game	1.30	1.00
Match goals	2.50	2.90
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	70%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	50%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lille	Paris FC	League
Corners
Corners won	3.83	4.00
Corners conceded	4.83	4.17
Match total	8.66	8.17	9.63
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	33% 2/6
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	17% 1/6
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	1.29	2.29
Opponent cards	1.71	1.57
Match total	3.00	3.86	3.47
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7

	Lille	Paris FC	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.00
Corners conceded	4.50	4.11
Match total	8.50	8.11	9.63
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.00
Opponent cards	1.90	1.20
Match total	3.40	3.20	3.47
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.