UEFA Europa League Matchday 7 Thu, Jan 21 · 17:45 Stadion Miejski, Białystok
Jagiellonia 17th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Lyon 8th · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,543 kmRest days42 · 5.1Matches / 14d0 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Jagiellonia—%
Draw—%
Lyon—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Białystok)

Forecast from 6 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Jagiellonia and Lyon. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

JagielloniaLyon
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
31 Current StrengthIn forecast 60
27 AttackIn forecast 55
28 DefenceIn forecast 56
— Form indexContext 85
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Jagiellonia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Lyon

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

JagielloniaLyon
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.53
1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52
+0.93 Goals minus xGContext +0.97
100% Scored inContext 100%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
9.00 ShotsContext 12.00
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
44% On target shareContext 58%
— Shots in the boxContext 9.50
— Box shareContext 79%
22% ConversionContext 21%
4.00 OffsidesContext —
19.00 Shots allowedContext 12.50
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
6.00 BlocksContext 4.00
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
70% Save rateContext 56%
42% PossessionIn forecast 47%
363 PassesContext 419
294 Accurate passesContext 348
81% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.94 Team ratingContext 6.88
16.50 FoulsContext 8.00
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.32
1.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57
+0.55 Goals minus xGContext +0.58
100% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
14.00 ShotsContext 12.70
6.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.89
49% On target shareContext 42%
10.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.10
64% Box shareContext 72%
14% ConversionContext 15%
3.00 OffsidesContext 2.57
16.17 Shots allowedContext 12.40
4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
5.22 BlocksContext 2.30
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40
72% Save rateContext 76%
47% PossessionIn forecast 52%
392 PassesContext 457
319 Accurate passesContext 389
81% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.98 Team ratingContext 6.95
14.44 FoulsContext 10.50
13.44 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Jagiellonia
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 45 · 3 pts vs 3.5 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
  • W15 OctH · Ararat-Armenia3–12.3 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Olympiakos Piraeus1–20.7 xPts
Lyon
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,543 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +4.3 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Nice2–12.2 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Crystal Palace3–21.5 xPts
  • L9 OctA · Lens1–21.1 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Rennes4–01.6 xPts
  • W16 SepA · Anderlecht2–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Jagiellonia Lyon
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match42UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Dec5.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 16 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,543 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 01 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one7.11.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Jagiellonia Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Ararat-Armenia (H) 3–1, 15 Oct
50S. Abramowicz(G)
20B. Wdowik 4Y. Kobayashi 5Bernardo Vital 27Rodrigo Conceição
7K. Szmyt 19A. Klynge 6T. Romanczuk 72K. Jóźwiak
30O. Sow 11Jesús Imaz
Lyon Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Nice (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
40R. Descamps(G)
16Abner 19M. Niakhaté 22Clinton Mata 13Z. Athekame
2M. Bidstrup 6F. Tessmann
24J. Duranville 99N. Nartey 26K. Boudache
10P. Šulc

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Jagiellonia Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Lyon Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Jagiellonia · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
1.00
Lyon · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

JagielloniaLyonForecast
Scored per game 2.002.50
Conceded per game 1.501.50
Match goals 3.504.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%100%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 100%100%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
JagielloniaLyonForecast
Scored per game 2.171.90
Conceded per game 1.001.00
Match goals 3.172.90
Over 1.5 100%90%
Over 2.5 83%70%
Over 3.5 33%30%
Both teams scored 83%70%
Clean sheets 17%30%
Failed to score 0%10%
Games610

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

JagielloniaLyonLeague
Corners
Corners won2.004.50
Corners conceded3.004.50
Match total5.009.009.76
Over 8.50% 0/150% 1/2
Over 9.50% 0/150% 1/2
Over 10.50% 0/10% 0/2
Cards
Cards3.001.50
Opponent cards2.001.50
Match total5.003.003.76
Over 3.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 4.5100% 2/20% 0/2
JagielloniaLyonLeague
Corners
Corners won4.294.40
Corners conceded4.436.00
Match total8.7210.409.76
Over 8.557% 4/780% 8/10
Over 9.557% 4/780% 8/10
Over 10.514% 1/750% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.701.50
Opponent cards2.502.10
Match total4.203.603.76
Over 3.590% 9/1050% 5/10
Over 4.540% 4/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Jagiellonia2 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
1 1 0-15
1 16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
61-75
1 76-90
Lyon2 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
2 0-15
1 16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
1 1 76-90
Jagiellonia10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
3 3 0-15
2 1 16-30
8 3 31-45
2 46-60
3 61-75
3 3 76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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