Sturm Graz vs Rangers – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 20:00 Merkur Arena, Graz

Sturm Graz 35th · 0 pts · 1 played L

2–1Full time

Rangers 31st · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Rangers were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 32). Sturm Graz had 8.1 days of rest, Rangers 7 and had to travel 1,669 km.

Away travel1,669 kmRest days8.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Sturm Graz40%

Draw26%

Rangers34%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.38

Sturm Graz39%

Draw27%

Rangers34%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28

Sturm Graz39%

Draw26%

Rangers34%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.36

Sturm Graz32%

Draw26%

Rangers42%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.55

Sturm Graz39%

Draw27%

Rangers34%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.30

Over 2.5 55% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Graz)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 16

Team strength

Sturm Graz

Rangers

32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 40

32 AttackIn forecast 38

37 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sturm Graz

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rangers

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sturm Graz

Rangers

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

70% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.70 ShotsContext 11.56

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.63

33% On target shareContext 28%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.11

61% Box shareContext 58%

9% ConversionContext 6%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.33

11.90 Shots allowedContext 14.78

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.89

3.00 BlocksContext 3.25

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.89

74% Save rateContext 66%

53% PossessionIn forecast 57%

406 PassesContext 491

322 Accurate passesContext 422

79% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.71

12.30 FoulsContext 11.44

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.11

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.30

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sturm Graz

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,203 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rangers

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,669 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sturm Graz	Rangers
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep	7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 25 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,669 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,203 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	21	20.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sturm Graz Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Christensen(G)

17E. Karić 24D. Lavalée 47E. Aiwu 5T. Oermann

21T. Chukwuani 4J. Gorenc Stankovič

26B. Beganović 10O. Kiteishvili 19T. Horvat

77M. Malone

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Rangers Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Butland(G)

30J. Meghoma 13D. Cornelius 5J. Souttar 2J. Tavernier

8C. Barron 43N. Raskin

23D. Gassama 11Thelo Aasgaard 18O. Antman

9Youssef Chermiti

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sturm Graz Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Rangers Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sturm Graz+0.3 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Rangers+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Sturm Graz · Home No home games yet this season.

Rangers · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Sturm Graz	Rangers	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	1.00	2.89
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	100%
Games	1	1

	Sturm Graz	Rangers	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	1.00	2.89
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	100%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sturm Graz	Rangers	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	4.00
Corners conceded	4.00	2.00
Match total	7.00	6.00	9.52
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	3.00	3.00
Match total	5.00	5.00	4.37
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Sturm Graz	Rangers	League
Corners
Corners won	4.33	6.11
Corners conceded	5.33	4.89
Match total	9.66	11.00	9.52
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.30
Opponent cards	2.50	1.70
Match total	4.50	4.00	4.37
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 16 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.81league 4.19

Red cards0.19league 0.19

Cards 5+63%league 41%

Fouls23.9league 26.3

Penalties0.19league 0.30

Home wins31%league 37%

Sturm Graz

No previous matches with this referee.

Rangers

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.