Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Brighton were slight favourites.
Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 59). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sunderland. Sunderland were without D. Ballard and B. Brobbey. Brighton were without L. Dunk and J. Hinshelwood. Sunderland had 20 days of rest, Brighton 21 and had to travel 458 km. Weather to note: strong wind.
Away travel458 kmRest days20 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Sunderland30%
Draw23%
Brighton47%
Sunderland29%
Draw25%
Brighton46%
Sunderland30%
Draw23%
Brighton47%
Sunderland24%
Draw21%
Brighton55%
Sunderland31%
Draw23%
Brighton46%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
Strong wind
13°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 30 km/h
- Humidity 53%
RefereeThomas Bramall
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 113
Team strength
Sunderland
Brighton
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
62
AttackIn forecast
87
59
DefenceIn forecast
85
71
Form indexContext
88
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBrighton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandBrighton
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.20
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
2.30
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
-0.75
Goals minus xGContext
+0.90
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
13.20
ShotsContext
19.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
38%
On target shareContext
31%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
12.60
67%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
2.50
OffsidesContext
4.00
12.00
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
4.00
BlocksContext
3.50
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
38%
Save rateContext
63%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
401
PassesContext
549
328
Accurate passesContext
478
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.27
13.00
FoulsContext
13.00
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
2.06
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.90
ShotsContext
16.90
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
32%
On target shareContext
34%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
12.00
70%
Box shareContext
72%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.43
12.00
Shots allowedContext
10.00
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
4.00
BlocksContext
2.88
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
61%
Save rateContext
68%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
400
PassesContext
540
327
Accurate passesContext
466
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.07
12.50
FoulsContext
11.90
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
WDLWL
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 71 · 7 pts vs 4.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Brighton
WLDWW
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel458 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 88 · 10 pts vs 4.5 for an average club · +2.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Brighton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20Premier League 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 21Premier League 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 458 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
4K. Danso
20N. Mukiele
32T. Hume
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
10N. Angulo
28E. Le Fée
12T. Meunier
18W. Isidor
Brighton
Confirmed XI
1B. Verbruggen(G)
21O. Boscagli
4P. Struijk
44L. Vušković
24F. Kadıoğlu
13P. Groß
14Chema Andrés
29M. De Cuyper
26Y. Ayari
25D. Gómez
19C. Kostoulas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −27.5% · Defence line −9.9% of weighted minutes
- DEF D. Ballard Starter 6.69 Def −8.7%
- ATT B. Brobbey Starter 6.69 Att −21.4%
- MID H. Diarra Rotation 6.74 Att −3.3% Def −1.3%
- ATT R. Mundle Rotation 6.48 Att −2.8%
Brighton
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −20.3% · Defence line −17.5% of weighted minutes
- DEF L. Dunk Starter 7.10 Def −9.4%
- MID J. Hinshelwood Starter 6.74 Att −7.4% Def −3.7%
- ATT Y. Minteh Rotation 6.82 Att −6.6%
- MID M. Wieffer Rotation 6.82 Att −3.2% Def −1.6%
- MID K. Mitoma Rotation 6.85 Att −2.9% Def −1.4%
- DEF P. Struijk Rotation 7.22 Def −1.3%
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Brighton-0.1 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Brighton · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Sunderland | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | L 0–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Sunderland wins1 draws1 Brighton wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 100%
- 14 Mar 2026Sunderland0–1Brighton
- 20 Dec 2025Brighton0–0Sunderland
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Brighton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 3.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.20 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Sunderland | Brighton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Brighton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 7.80 | 10.00 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.40 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Sunderland | Brighton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 6.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 10.66 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.50 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Bramall 113 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.78
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+41%league 41%
Fouls22.0league 23.0
Penalties0.19league 0.18
Home wins47%league 37%
Sunderland7 with this referee
Record2-4-1
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D5 Sep 26A · Brentford1–12
- L24 Jan 26A · West Ham1–34
- D3 Nov 25H · Everton1–13
- D13 Sep 25A · Crystal Palace0–01
- W5 Jan 25H · Portsmouth1–01
Brighton5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W11 Apr 26A · Burnley2–01
- L8 Feb 26H · Crystal Palace0–11
- D7 Jan 26A · Manchester City1–16
- D21 Jan 23A · Leicester2–21
- L30 Aug 22A · Fulham1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sunderland5 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Brighton5 games · scored 16 · conceded 5
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 23 · conceded 12
4
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
