Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Everton were slight favourites.
Everton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 43). Sunderland had 9.3 days of rest, Everton 8.1 and had to travel 196 km.
Away travel196 kmRest days9.3 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sunderland30%
Draw26%
Everton43%
Sunderland30%
Draw27%
Everton43%
Sunderland31%
Draw27%
Everton43%
Sunderland24%
Draw25%
Everton51%
Sunderland30%
Draw27%
Everton43%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sunderland)
No weather data yet
RefereeThomas Bramall
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 91
Team strength
Sunderland
Everton
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
62
AttackIn forecast
61
59
DefenceIn forecast
66
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEverton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandEverton
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
67%
Scored inContext
56%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
9.78
ShotsContext
11.11
3.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
28%
On target shareContext
28%
7.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
73%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.44
Shots allowedContext
13.22
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.89
BlocksContext
5.22
4.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
87%
Save rateContext
62%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
371
PassesContext
384
295
Accurate passesContext
306
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.11
FoulsContext
10.56
10.78
Fouls sufferedContext
12.22
1.56
Yellow cardsContext
2.44
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
60%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.70
ShotsContext
11.40
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
29%
On target shareContext
30%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
71%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.60
Shots allowedContext
13.60
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.60
BlocksContext
5.10
4.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
87%
Save rateContext
67%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
377
PassesContext
374
303
Accurate passesContext
298
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.95
9.50
FoulsContext
10.40
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
Rest9.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km774 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Everton
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel196 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Everton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.3Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 8.1Premier League 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 196 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 774 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
22R. Roefs(G)
6L. Geertruida
5D. Ballard
20N. Mukiele
17Reinildo
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
32T. Hume
28E. Le Fée
18W. Isidor
25B. Traoré
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
15J. O'Brien
37J. Garner
27I. Gueye
18J. Grealish
22K. Dewsbury-Hall
10I. Ndiaye
11T. Barry
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Everton
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sunderland-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Everton+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Everton · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Sunderland | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves | W 2–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| West Ham | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 8 of 12 · 2.00 per game | 8 of 12 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 44% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 44% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 44% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Sunderland | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 44% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 44% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 44% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 9.33 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.22 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 2.89 | 4.11 | 3.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Sunderland | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 9.90 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.20 | 3.65 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Bramall 91 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 3.55
Red cards0.15league 0.11
Cards 5+38%league 38%
Fouls22.1league 21.8
Penalties0.15league 0.18
Home wins49%league 52%
Sunderland4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D13 Sep 25A · Crystal Palace0–01
- W5 Jan 25H · Portsmouth1–01
- W10 Apr 23A · Cardiff1–01
- D4 Feb 23A · Millwall1–11
Everton2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D30 Jan 24A · Fulham0–02
- L30 Dec 23A · Wolves0–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sunderland9 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Everton9 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 11 · conceded 8
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
