Sunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel146 kmRest days2.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Sunderland—%
Draw—%
Hull City—%
Weather (Sunderland)
Forecast from 18 Dec
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Sunderland and Hull City. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Hull City
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Sunderland
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Hull City
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Sunderland
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
-
Insight
Hull City
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Hull City
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Sunderland
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Sunderland
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
SunderlandHull City
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
37
62
AttackIn forecast
37
59
DefenceIn forecast
50
56
Form indexContext
36
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHull City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SunderlandHull City
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
2.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.65
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
57%
Scored inContext
71%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
11.57
ShotsContext
10.71
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
35%
On target shareContext
32%
7.29
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
62%
Box shareContext
45%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
2.83
OffsidesContext
1.40
14.57
Shots allowedContext
14.57
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.86
4.29
BlocksContext
4.29
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
46%
Save rateContext
77%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
32%
400
PassesContext
275
316
Accurate passesContext
197
79%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.43
FoulsContext
10.86
14.14
Fouls sufferedContext
7.57
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.56
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.40
ShotsContext
10.30
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
30%
On target shareContext
37%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
5.88
65%
Box shareContext
50%
8%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.57
12.40
Shots allowedContext
13.80
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.90
BlocksContext
4.10
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
52%
Save rateContext
77%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
33%
395
PassesContext
267
316
Accurate passesContext
182
80%
Pass accuracyContext
68%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.70
FoulsContext
10.10
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sunderland
WLLWL
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km727 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Hull City
DDLDL
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel146 km258 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 36 · 3 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · -1.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sunderland |
Hull City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8Premier League 2026-2027, 30 Dec | 3.8Premier League 2026-2027, 29 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 146 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 727 km | 258 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 6 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 3.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sunderland
Last XI · not confirmed
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
4K. Danso
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
28E. Le Fée
11C. Rigg
32T. Hume
57T. Tuterov
Hull City
Last XI · not confirmed
19K. Tzolakis(G)
18B. Norton-Cuffy
22L. Herrington
15J. Egan
6S. Ajayi
2L. Coyle
7B. Thomas
27R. Slater
25M. Crooks
10M. Belloumi
9O. McBurnie
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sunderland
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Hull City
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Sunderland · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Hull City · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Sunderland | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Sunderland wins2 draws2 Hull City wins
Goals per game1.17 – 1.17
Over 2.517%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 22 Feb 2025Sunderland0–1Hull City
- 20 Oct 2024Hull City0–1Sunderland
- 19 Jan 2024Sunderland0–1Hull City
- 26 Dec 2023Hull City0–1Sunderland
- 7 Apr 2023Sunderland4–4Hull City
- 17 Dec 2022Hull City1–1Sunderland
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sunderland | Hull City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.14 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Sunderland | Hull City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.14 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 43% | |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 29% | |
| Games | 10 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sunderland | Hull City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 6.71 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 10.42 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.85 | 4.00 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Sunderland | Hull City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 6.44 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 10.33 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.80 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Sunderland7 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Hull City7 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Hull City10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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